How is Scotland faring at creating persuasive policies in recent times?

The interest might have been slightly ghoulish, arising from a wish to hear how she was going to deal with the death of her husband of 73 years. She did so without a tremble of the lip or a quiver of the tongue, but with dignity and affection all at once. Here was proof, if any was needed, that such things are not going to change as long as she sits on her throne.

But in the course of nature, she is not going to sit on her throne for so very much longer. Out of respect, there has been no searching debate on what will happen to the UK monarchy then. We perhaps should not expect anything in England, a nation of loyal subjects, and Wales is little different. In Northern Ireland the question assumes a fraught local character of its own.

Only in Scotland does it seem possible that the legal succession in the House of Windsor can make a longer-term difference to our old ways of doing things. At the moment our political life is stagnant, even though till recently we seemed eager to become more footloose and fancy free. The first problem of a new reign could be how to make a fresh start with Scotland.

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Scotland is not as royalist as the other three nations of the UK, yet there is still a majority for the monarchy. The National has published a poll showing how 55% of English people supported the Queen while a mere 14% were against her. Scotland had 41% in favour of her and 28% against – a far from overwhelming lead, indeed, yet sound enough. Boris Johnson could lose it in a morning.

I’m afraid my prediction is that the House of Windsor will hang on. It’s not just a matter of the personalities involved. While I have a high respect for the Queen, I find Prince Charles pretty awful. But they will not be the only individuals with a big influence on the course of events. It’s also because I don’t think any of the Scottish governments after independence are going to make the monarchy a priority.

While recently there has been in public opinion a slow trend in favour of secession from the UK, it is not yet decisive enough to make anybody sure of it – certainly not Nicola Sturgeon, who specifies she wants 60% of the electorate behind her before she tries to inch her way onwards. With a stubborn stalemate over the monarchy among the people at large, she is more likely to reach her target if she can get herself and the Queen on the same side.

It beats me why the fervent anti-monarchists cannot see this. With an obvious split in the nation there is bound to be a spectrum of opinion about the monarchy, some for and some against, some more so and some less. The leaders of each camp trying to reach a majority will need to seek it, especially among the less committed on either side, because that is where swings will take place and concessions must be made to woo the dubious voter. What I would recommend to everybody is the avoidance of off-putting gusto. The most likely to be put off are those with the most moderate opinions. Zealots are on a hiding to nothing.

Despite some residual taste for ranting and raving, Scotland is quite a douce wee country really. Militancy may tint the air a fiery red over Greater Glasgow – though even there leaving Bearsden a faint pink. But in the rest of the country, whether in the tranquil counties or in the posh parts of Edinburgh, opinions on the monarchy are likely to prove politely pale.

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Think of a special case – the voters who in May 2021 plumped for Alba, the most radical of all the factions enjoying some parliamentary representation. Basically, this party rallies the remaining support for Alex Salmond, the most militant of our political leaders. When he used to visit the Queen at Balmoral, did he get round to telling her how much he wanted to overthrow her? I will happily bet a high-denomination Scottish banknote that the two of them would turn as soon as they could to swapping tips for that afternoon’s racing at Ayr or Kelso.

THE fact remains that today’s Scotland is fairly evenly split on all the great political questions of the age, and deeply divided on only one or two, which do not necessarily coincide with the interests of the extreme and intransigent. We’ve been at a constitutional crux of one kind or another for eight years now, which for many is quite enough. When presented with a chance to break out of deadlock, the wary Scottish voter declines to do so, even while blaming wicked UK Tories for the latest mess.

The government of Scotland has not been covering itself in glory either, not in the conception and not in the execution of any policy. Just as well when it has no enticing programme in prospect, apart from defeating a contagion that comes from somewhere else. There is already a need to shore up the higher SNP support of 2021, and it is worth asking whether the anti-monarchist position is a good place to start the job. Republicans on the back foot are hardly the most reassuring people in today’s Scotland. Disillusion rather than triumphalism is the mood of the moment. Persuasive policies could help, but they are something all parties find hard to formulate, and we are getting worse at it rather than better. For the SNP, it may be progress when the party conference revives the National Council, a policy-making forum scrapped three years ago. Its powers were passed to regional gatherings that have achieved nothing. Many activists believe it is all a sham, designed to reinforce rather than restrain the central power of leader over led.

A remarkable example has just occurred. For the last 40 years, since the SNP’s move to the left under Salmond, it has placed its faith in intervention by government to cure the long-term sluggishness of the Scottish economy. In the 21st century it has been growing more and more slowly, and no means has been found of livening it up.

But at least growth has been the aim of policy, and a big promise of the referendum campaign was that independence would revive growth in Scotland. Both Salmond and Sturgeon said so. Not now.

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For 18 months Sturgeon has been telling us that growth is an undesirable goal, compared to “wellness”. We should forget the former and concentrate on the latter.

I have one particular question about this switch: in what circumstances was it made? The party has often voted for growth, if not to any great effect. When did it ever make any sort of decision in favour of wellness? I don’t think it ever has. Yet, on the say-so of the First Minister, it has reversed the policy of 40 years.

And I have a more general question: won’t this wellness only help us to put up with a poorer Scotland? If poverty is our big problem, it will take longer to cure. We are already poorer than England, though we have caught up a little. Under the new policy it is unlikely we will catch up any more. On the contrary, Scotland will still get poorer than England, possibly at a faster rate. Who then, from the centre-ground of the electorate where they need to change their minds, will do so – and vote to separate from England? Not enough, I think.