THE latest YouGov poll putting SNP on 54% must be taken with some caution given the election is still a year away and the survey comes on the back of the covid crisis and a potential “rallying round the flag” effect. Nevertheless, it augers well for another SNP majority and raises thoughts on what that might entail for independence even at a time when normal political discourse is suspended.
Once the pandemic hopefully ends and the 2021 election looms, the YouGov poll begs the question of how many of that 54% are vehemently against independence, but happy with SNP devolved governance? Some perhaps, but I’d wager a tiny minority. Scotland now primarily votes down constitutional lines, hence why the Tories are second and Labour a distant third place. The overwhelming majority of that 54% is due to support for independence, or at least being open to being persuaded of its merits. True, there is currently little alternative to vote for (FM Willie Rennie or FM Dick Leonard, anyone?), but if the SNP take this heavy support for granted over the long term, they could head the same way as Labour party.
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When the pandemic is over the focus of the 2021 campaign and the next government term, if that seems assured, should be on achieving full independence, if the SNP don’t want to see their support eventually decline. It really is stick or twist for the SNP on independence in the next five years. It remains to be seen if Nicola Sturgeon, for all her administrative ability and relative popularity, has the necessary attributes and appetite to fight the establishment and lead the independence charge, or if she is better suited to cautious, competent, but ultimately devolved managerialism.
Every time Ian Blackford rises in parliament to shout “Scotland will not stand for this ... Scotland will not be dragged out against our will” it begins to sound embarrassing, weak and hollow, and even supporters roll their eyes. This will increase with time and turn to indifference if nothing happens on the constituition. To be fair to the SNP leadership, who I still imagine want independence, they were rendered powerless when Scotland voted No in 2014, which was self-inflicted by many voters who have now changed their minds. Perhaps, though, the SNP should be more honest about being hamstrung, rather than talking tough, raising expectation and then doing little.
If devolution and providing a semi-autonomous buttress to the Tories is all they can deliver then okay, it’s not to be sniffed at, but the party should be open about that and see what happens to their support, or push hell for leather for independence by 2025, which the vast majority of their voters want.
The pandemic must take priority at the moment, but the rivets of the Union are still creaking in the background, as seen in how the Scottish Government are acting somewhat independently of the UK in the current crisis. In the final reckoning, unless have we have and win a formal referendum, big decisions like getting taken out of EU will continue to lie with voters south of the Border and be dictated from London.
Chris Spalding
Edinburgh
I HAVE just been watching a recording of Jeane Freeman’s excellent stand-in for the First Minister (why do we have so many able female politicians in Scotland?). A question was asked: “Do you think it is right that the UK Government should not enforce tests and isolation at UK airports?” Just as Jean started to rightly say “I think that it is unfortunate that...” BANG – end of transmission. Do we really have to put up with this garbage from our so-called national broadcaster?
Robin Hastie
St Andrews
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