ANOTHER week brings another crushing by-election defeat – or two – for the Tories.
Labour picked up two formerly safe Conservative seats, in the constituencies of Wellingborough and Kingswood.
Of course, there’s always the debate over how much by-elections can predict the outcome of the General Election.
But looking at the numbers, the signs aren’t exactly even slightly promising for Rishi Sunak’s party when the UK does go to the polls.
In Wellingborough, the by-election was held following a recall petition triggered by Tory Peter Bone’s six-week suspension from the House of Commons for bullying and sexual misconduct.
READ MORE: UK Parliament committee raises alarm over 'savagery' in Gaza
He had won the seat in 2019 with a hefty majority of 18,500.
The seat was reported to barely be on Labour’s campaign radar until recently and was a lowly 226th on their target list.
But on Friday, the party’s candidate Gen Kitchen (below) emerged as victor on a swing of 28.5%.
It goes down in history as the second-biggest swing since 1945 and the largest-ever drop in Tory vote share.
There was also a big swing in Kingswood, where the resignation of Tory MP Chris Skidmore resulted in a battle for the seat.
In the end, the Tories didn’t even land a soft thwack, with Labour picking up the seat thanks to a 16% swing.
As polling expert Professor John Curtice put it, the results suggest the Conservatives “have a mountain to climb”– but at the moment are still struggling to get even so far as base camp.
When it comes to the General Election, not every victory is likely to be as clear-cut, as fresh analysis in the Sunday National has revealed.
Based on an MRP poll published by YouGov in January, it shows there are 10 seats in Scotland which could turn out to be key battlegrounds, where the gap between the two largest parties’ vote share is 2% or less.
READ MORE: MPs urged to send ‘united message’ on SNP Gaza ceasefire motion
First Minister Humza Yousaf will be hoping the SNP pick up a large number so that he can take the party’s independence strategy forward.
But first he will have to make sure he always spells out clearly what that is – following criticism over an interview in which he spoke of the most rather than a majority of seats.
The SNP were in the headlines again after using a rare Opposition Day debate at Westminster to put forward a motion to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
The move put Labour under huge pressure, and it follows a similar motion in November last year which saw a significant rebellion with 56 MPs defying leader Keir Starmer to back the SNP.
With a General Election looming ever nearer, the stakes were expected to be even higher and so it has proved to be the case – even before the results of the vote were known.
According to a report in Politico, Starmer addressed around 50 frontbenchers in a meeting the evening before the vote urging them to reject the SNP’s motion.
One reason, it stated, is that the Labour leader said he had to be “realistic” as he will be operating on the world stage if his party wins the keys to Downing Street.
Meanwhile, the debate itself was overshadowed by a furious row over the Opposition Day ceasefire motion, after speaker Lindsay Hoyle (below) selected both UK Government and Labour amendments – ultimately saving Labour from a rebellion threat.
It was the first time in Westminster's history that this has occurred on an Opposition Day, the clerk of the House has confirmed – calling it a "departure from long-established convention".
There have been reports – denied by Labour as “completely untrue” – that Hoyle had been left in “no doubt” that he would be voted out of his role after the General Election, unless he called the party’s amendment.
Among those commenting was SNP depute leader Keith Brown, who said: "The decision today to undermine Scotland's voice on a matter as grave as Gaza requires analysis of whether and how people in Scotland can expect any level of democratic input to a House of Commons where 'democratic principles' are decaying at a faster rate than the building itself."
The chaos of the Commons can perhaps be summarised in a pithy comment which came with news that division bells which used to sound in pubs and restaurants surrounding Westminster are fast disappearing.
The noise would alert MPs to stop eating and drinking and go to vote in the Commons – but the BBC reported barely a handful are working.
One pub staff member was reported as saying they were not sure why the bell was broken but it hadn’t been functioning for years.
"Just like our politicians,” they added.
Visit our interactive map for a seat-by-seat guide to the General Election
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here