Could Reform UK cause extinction of Scottish Tories?

After all, the Unionist party – when it was called the “Brexit Party” – had very little success in Scotland in the last general election in 2019, securing just 0.5% of the vote while fielding candidates in 15 out of 59 seats.

This didn’t stop party leader Richard Tice from saying at a press conference in London last Wednesday that Reform UK will look to fight the election in all 57 Scottish constituencies.

READ MORE: Reform rules out Tory pact as Sunak faces pressure to call election

He insisted that there would be no deal-making with the Conservatives to stand down any candidates in any seats across the UK.

"I can be absolutely categoric that we are not doing any deals with the Tories," Tice said in response to a question by the BBC's Chris Mason.

"We will stand everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales."

He then added that the Tories are "terrified" of the threat his party poses at the next UK-wide ballot.

That may be the case in England.

But what threat does Reform UK – famously unpopular north of the Border – pose for the Scottish Tories?

Professor James Mitchell – a professor of public policy at Edinburgh University – told the Sunday National that Reform UK’s intervention is “likely to have little impact in Scotland”.

He added: “Though, it could be potentially damaging to the Tories in a number of seats in England.”

A number of polls in December have put Reform at 10 or 11% in the UK, which if true would mean it could decimate the Tory vote even further - albeit more likely south of the Border.

Mitchell did concede, however, that it may have the “indirect effect of highlighting tensions and divisions” inside the Tory Party.

READ MORE: FMQs: Douglas Ross told off for calling the SNP 'the nats'

“This would undermine Sunak’s efforts across Britain,” Mitchell said.

Of course, Reform UK has had Scottish representation before. In 2021, Reform UK gained representation at Holyrood when former Scottish Conservative and then Independent MSP Michelle Ballantyne joined the party and was named the party’s leader north of the Border by Nigel Farage – whose role in the party that was founded with his backing is still unclear.

That doesn’t mean much, however, as that representation didn’t last long. The right-wing party then won 5793 votes (0.21%) on the regional list at the Holyrood election later that year.

Most recently, at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in October last year, the party's candidate David Stark won 403 votes (1.3%).

So, can the party make any dent at all?

Professor Richard Curtice (below) says that the party does “now seem to pose a bit more of a threat”.

However, he adds that this is more in relation to England rather than Scotland.

"Virtually everybody who votes for Reform is a Leave voter. The party's nationalism is a British nationalism which doesn't necessarily export to Scotland,” the president of the British Polling Council said. “It’s at 2-3% at most north of the Border.”

The election expert did say, however, that they could pose a threat in Scotland’s North East – the most pro-Brexit part of Scotland.

“It may be that in one of those seats in the North East that the Tories will be trying to defend against the SNP, and where support for both parties is down, it could possibly be that even 100 Reform votes could tip the seat in the SNP’s direction,” he said. 

“But it's not going to be a lifeline for the SNP.”

The Sunday National contacted Reform UK for more information on their campaign in Scotland but received no response.