UNIONIST campaigners and politicians are marshalling a novel defence as the campaign for a second referendum begins to heat up.

It goes that, despite a manifesto pledge and a programme for government commitment to holding another poll before 2024, the SNP actually have no plans to do so.

Unionist commentator Alex Massie tweeted recently: “If the SNP really thought there was going to be an independence referendum next year do you think there would be just 11 civil servants working on the plans for it?”

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this week said independence was “just not going to happen”.

There are a team of 11 civil servants within the Scottish Government dedicated to planning another referendum, who it must be assumed are working to the SNP deadline of the end of 2023.

So why are Unionists claiming that, in reality, this is not happening?

Fergus Mutch, former SNP communications chief, concedes the SNP timetable is “ambitious”. But claiming the SNP “don’t really want independence” is a “cynical” argument, he said.

The National:

Now head of Braemar Communications, Mutch said: “By saying ‘we’re not playing games with the SNP, we’re not jumping to their timescale’, it plays well with [the Tories’] base and it buys them time but it doesn’t destroy the independence argument.

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“You hear these arguments ‘the SNP don’t really want independence; Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t really want independence’.

“I don’t think any of that’s true. At all levels, leadership, party, government, they want to secure independence.”

Andy Maciver, founder of the PR and lobbying firm Message Matters, called the issue a “phoney war” and argued the tactic is being used to “open a sore” in the Yes movement.

This was seen most recently when Alba campaigners, who feel the SNP are not moving fast enough to hold another vote, protested outside veteran MP Pete Wishart's office. 

It is unlikely a second referendum will be granted on the SNP timetable, he said, but “that is not to be blamed on the SNP not wanting one”.

The National:

He added: “There is no incentive for the UK Government to grant one but the only thing that will change that is a very significant result for the SNP at the next General Election.

“It’s not the first time [Unionists] have said that sort of thing because the timing is an issue within the Nationalist movement.

“There are plenty of people who would just want a referendum right now but there are people who think it’s just too risky.”

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Maciver, former head of communications for the Scottish Conservatives, thinks the Unionist side should back a referendum now – which he is confident they would win.

“I would not overestimate the strategy behind anything the Unionists say about this,” he said.

“The ‘you don’t really want a referendum thing’, that’s been going around for a while.

“The only thing they’re trying to do is open up an argument within Nationalist circles, because that argument does exist.

The National:

“I’m not sure it’s particularly strategic – the really smart thing to do would be have a referendum.”

But the Unionist side would be “petrified” to do this, he said.

This is something echoed by Denis Canavan, former chair of Yes Scotland’s advisory board.

The ex-Labour MP called the attack line “wishful thinking on the part of the Unionists”.

“If they were confident of winning indyref2, they would be saying: ‘Bring it on’," he added.

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“They are obviously running scared but they cannot go on running forever.

“Boris Johnson's dysfunctional government is helping the cause of Scottish independence but there should be no room for complacency in the Yes camp.”

Mutch made a similar warning, saying attacking Johnson was not the most “compelling case for independence”.

He added: “The most compelling case for independence is that we’d be a fairer, more prosperous, successful country.

“And that’s what should be what’s driving people to change their minds – not just because the Tories are awful.”

And while he thinks work is underway to hold another independence vote, Mutch is concerned the SNP did not “take full advantage of the election win last May” – warning the party should be in “battle mode” if it hopes to hold and win a second poll.

Canavan added that there was still “much work” needed to “win the support of undecided voters who are looking for detailed credible answers to difficult questions such as currency, pensions and our relations with Europe and the rest of the world".