ABERDEENSHIRE WEST
Winner in 2016: Alexander Burnett (Conservative)
THE north-east was the epicentre of the Scottish Conservative renaissance under Ruth Davidson at the 2017 UK General Election, which in retrospect makes it seem peculiar that the Tories only won a single constituency seat in the north-east electoral region when the surge got under way in the previous year’s Holyrood election.
That seat was Aberdeenshire West, but even there the margin of victory over the SNP was a tiny 2.6%. Part of the explanation for the tight result may be that the Liberal Democrat candidate was Mike Rumbles, who had been the MSP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, one of the constituency’s predecessor seats, for 12 years until 2011.
His personal vote was probably responsible for ensuring that a significant chunk of Unionist voters did not drift to the Tories, and almost made it possible for the SNP’s Dennis Robertson to retain the seat he had grabbed in 2011.
It therefore may be rather ominous for the SNP that the LibDem candidate this year is the lesser-known Rosemary Bruce.
READ MORE: Scottish party leaders to go head-to-head in first UK-wide TV debate
If a large proportion of the 20% of the electorate who voted for Rumbles in 2016 switch to the Tories, the result could be similar to the one recorded in the overlapping Westminster constituency in 2017, when the Tory percentage vote surged into the high 40s, leaving the SNP far behind.
The 2019 Westminster result offers more grounds for hope, though. If there had been such a thing as a lost cause for the SNP in the north-east, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine was assumed to be it, but instead Tory incumbent Andrew Bowie suffered an almighty scare, with his margin of victory slashed to less than 2%.
The SNP candidate who almost defied the odds on that occasion was Fergus Mutch, and the party will be hoping he’s their lucky talisman, because he’ll once again be taking the fight to the Tories this year.
On paper he requires a miniscule swing of just over 1% to win, but in reality a likely reduction in the LibDem vote may mean that he needs to increase the SNP vote share by at least seven or eight percentage points. It’s a tall order, but it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel