Yes Challenge could ‘really benefit’ push for indy by building on US strategies

Professor Andrew Sanders said it could benefit the Yes campaign by building on strategies used in the US which saw Bernie Sanders (no relation) propelled from an outsider to within touching distance of the presidential candidacy.

The Yes Challenge is based on the concept of “each one, teach one” and asks those who sign up to it to try to convince at least one undecided voter to commit to Yes in indyref2.

“This is an interesting strategy and I think one that could really benefit the Yes campaign,” said Sanders, assistant professor of political science at Texas A&M University.

He said it was important to remember that trust in government on a UK level was at an all-time low.

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“The Conservative Party strategy through the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated this – the Guardian’s Rafael Behr made a great point, essentially arguing that they’ve been using a strategy of governing through inaction, so eventually you get to the point where you have to take action and there’s only really one option left, so everyone just accepts it,” he said.

“Meanwhile Sturgeon has done better, in the public’s mind, throughout this. That offers the Yes campaign – as distinct from the SNP – the ability to point to Sturgeon and Johnson and say ‘this or this, who do you trust?’ to voters. The campaign can build upon that by following some of the lessons of the campaigns of Bernie Sanders over the past few years.”

He said what was needed was to grow a committed base by avoiding the alienation of potential supporters who need some persuasion, meeting voters where they are, focusing on existing voters and consolidating the movement.

“Two key points are, I think, to emphasise to supporters of independence the need to recognise that simply carrying SNP voters might not be enough to secure support for independence in a referendum,” said Professor Sanders. “It might, of course, given turnout in 2016 could quite easily be extrapolated based on the addition of young voters to the electorate, whose data suggests are more in favour of independence.

“However there’s also the question of how desirable it is to only garner the support of SNP voters. Obviously the SNP has drawn in key figures on the Scottish left over the years and the current state of the Scottish Labour Party leaves questions about how significant its opposition to a second referendum might actually be, but it will clearly be worthwhile for the Yes campaign to at least seek to engage traditional Labour voters and perhaps draw people who would vote Labour in the Scottish Parliament election to vote Yes (Labour for Indy group, to the extent that still exists).

“To this end, one of the weaknesses of Bernie’s campaign was that it did not do enough to gain support from the centre – the analogy with Yes 202x would be the ability of the independence campaign to go beyond people who are already in favour of independence and find those who might be inclined to agree with them if particular concerns are addressed.”

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He said new concerns about Scotland’s role in the UK were emerging all the time, so the question would be whether or not people who support the status quo could be persuaded to shift a little further.

“People might hear particular ideas from Unionists that resonate but are they hearing them directly from someone who came to see them, or are they just finding them online? Breaking people out of what can be online echo-chambers will be a useful strategy for campaigners,” said Professor Sanders, adding that meeting voters where they are is vital.

“One of the major reasons the Republican Party in the US did relatively well in the US House of Representatives elections in 2020 was the fact they continued door-to-door campaigning throughout the pandemic,” he said. “It’s hard to convince people you really care about what they think if you aren’t seen to be out in the communities trying to meet them. It allows campaign staff to address their concerns directly.

“I think the key lesson that Yes campaigners need to take from the Bernie campaigns can be summarised in one word: authenticity. Developing a campaign based on authenticity requires commitment and trust-building,” he said.