LATEST polling of UK-wide voting intentions has put the SNP on 50% in the first such YouGov poll to be conducted since the election.
The result is only from a subsample but does provide a clue into what a future full poll may look like.
The poll of voting intentions also put the Conservatives on 27% in Scotland, Labour on 13%, the LibDems 6%, Greens 2% and Brexit Party 1%.
According to James Kelly of ScotGoesPop!, if the results are replicated on a larger scale, it may down to a change in public opinion as well as changes in the polling methods to correct the pre-election underestimation of the SNP.
He did, however, point to a “large margin of error”.
If in the right ball-park – a “big if” according to Kelly – then “the SNP and the Scottish Tories will enjoy a post-election honeymoon, with the Tories deriving their boost from the election result south of the border, and with their extra support taken from other unionist parties”.
READ MORE: Kevin McKenna: Unionist ignorance over Scotland knows no bounds
He wrote on his ScotGoes Pop! blog: “If full-scale polls show a similar increase in support for the SNP, there may be two distinct factors behind it.
“One would be a genuine change in public opinion on the ground, but the other will be methodological changes that correct for the underestimation of the SNP in the run-up to the election.
“YouGov have attached a methodological note explaining that 2017 past vote weighting has been replaced with 2019 past vote weighting, and that demographic weighting has been updated as well.”
Kelly pointed to another result of the poll – that 71% of Scots believe Brexit is wrong – adding that the size of this majority could mean a bias towards Remainers in the subsample.
He added: “But at the same time it's encouraging because the Yes movement desperately needs to ensure that the public don't ‘move on’ from Brexit (whereas the British establishment, from Boris Johnson all the way through to the BBC and The Sun, will be trying to achieve the opposite effect and get us to accept Brexit as an unchangeable historical fact as soon as humanly possible).”
Earlier in the month, The National gave its backing to a crowdfunder from ScotGoesPop to raise £4000 to conduct a poll into Scottish independence.
READ MORE: The National backs fundraiser for ScotGoesPop! independence poll
The crowdfunder has since surpassed that target, raising £6186 from 349 donors at the time of writing – you can visit it by clicking here.
ScotGoesPop! is a pro-independence blog written by Jame Kelly
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