Winner in 2017: Carol Monaghan (SNP)

YOUGOV had some reassurance to offer the SNP in Glasgow North West, suggesting that the incumbent Carol Monaghan will be re-elected with a lead of 19% over her Labour opponent. And unlike in Glasgow South West, there’s no real cause for doubting it because this is one of the Glasgow seats in which the SNP start with slightly more of a safety margin. In 2017 they won by just under seven points, making it the 15th safest of the 35 SNP-held constituencies.

To gain it on a uniform swing, Labour would need to close the national gap on the SNP to around three points, which by now is an unattainable goal. And even if Labour perform better in Glasgow than elsewhere in the central belt, as they may well do, it’s unlikely to be enough to bring this seat into play for them. The SNP don’t even need to worry about a relatively high Leave vote limiting their potential support – this constituency voted Remain by an overwhelming margin of 69% to 31%.

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But of course there was a time, not all that long ago, when people would have laughed if you’d said the seat would become fairly reliable for the SNP. Under various guises it was the heartland of Labour’s Donald Dewar when he was shadow Scottish secretary and then Scottish secretary, and in general elections his majority never fell below 13,340 votes. As in all Glasgow seats, the SNP repeatedly failed to muscle their way into contention and were unable to take more than 19% of the vote during Dewar’s tenure.

Even that high watermark was probably only achieved because a well-known MP (Dick Douglas) was the SNP candidate. Over a very short period of time, the SNP have journeyed from hopelessness in seats like this to a position of being heavy favourites. That’s an unparalleled transformation in post-war UK politics. So regardless of the triumphs or disappointments that tomorrow may have in store, we shouldn’t lose sight of just how far the independence movement has come.