Every day until the election we will profile all 59 of Scotland’s contests. Can the SNP hold what they have or win any new seats? James Kelly of ScotGoesPop has the answers


Winner in 2017: David Duguid (Conservatives) At entirely the opposite end of the spectrum is a Tory-held seat which is estimated to have been the only constituency in Scotland to vote Leave in the EU referendum. It’s important to stress that’s only an estimate, and that the potential margin of error on the 54% Leave figure means it’s entirely conceivable that all 59 Scottish constituencies voted Remain.

But at the very least it’s safe to assume that opinion on Brexit in Banff and Buchan was evenly divided in 2016. The drift towards Remain in polls since then has been limited, so it’s likely that there’s still a Leave support in the constituency of 45% or higher, which is the sort of figure that could theoretically take the Tories to a comfortable victory under the First Past The Post voting system.

The good news is that not all Leave voters are going to back the Tories. If they were, the Tories would be on 38% of the vote across Scotland, and no opinion poll this year has put them within light-years of that figure. So a Brexit-friendly constituency need by no means be considered a lost cause for the SNP, and it’s striking that the 9% deficit they have to reverse in Banff and Buchan is identical to the 9% Tory lead in East Renfrewshire. But it may well be markedly tougher to achieve the relatively modest required swing when they’re fishing in a pond that is only around 50% Remain than it will be in the three-quarters Remain pond of Paul Masterton’s seat.

READ MORE: General Election analysis: SNP hoping to reclaim East Renfrewshire

READ MORE: General Election analysis: Edinburgh South West could easily be held

The SNP do have a couple of advantages in Banff and Buchan that they don’t have in East Renfrewshire. Firstly, there’s the long-standing SNP tradition in the constituency, which for 18 years was held by former first minister Alex Salmond. On the last three occasions he contested the seat, Salmond’s majority over the Tories never dipped below a whopping 32%. There was a very long time when it seemed almost unimaginable that the Tories would ever get back into the game. And secondly, Banff and Buchan is unambiguously a two-horse race, which means Remainers will know that if they don’t vote SNP, they’ll effectively be helping a pro-Brexit party to win.

That should concentrate the minds of at least some voters who might otherwise be tempted by the LibDems.