NOBODY knows how the knife-edge Brexit vote will go at Westminster today. One thing is clear, however: Scotland ’s Members of Parliament will vote by a big majority against the bad deal, just as a large majority of the Scottish public voted to remain in the European Union. Should MPs from the rest of the UK impose their will on Scotland and support Boris Johnson then Scotland will be taken out of the EU, out of the single market and out of the customs union against the democratic wishes of the people.
In recent weeks the UK Government has been rushing around trying to accommodate the Democratic Unionist Party and the Brexit extremists of the Tory European Research Group. No such efforts have been undertaken with the governments of Scotland and Wales. So much for the claim that the UK is a “family of nations”. No proposals were made to Edinburgh or Cardiff, no specific suggestions were made in negotiations with EU partners. London did what it thought it had to with Northern Ireland, and ignored the other nations in the UK.
The deal agreed by Boris Johnson effectively allows Northern Ireland to remain within the European Union. While his withdrawal agreement mentioned Northern Ireland 111 times – even mentioning other countries from Peru to Colombia – it does not mention Scotland once. For the avoidance of doubt, I repeat: IT DOES NOT MENTION SCOTLAND ONCE.
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When asked on LBC radio why Scotland shouldn’t have special deal when Northern Ireland is effectively getting to remain in the EU, senior English Tory MP Damian Green replied: “Kent doesn’t have a special deal either.” There you have it in one answer. When it comes down to it for the Tories, Scotland is comparable with an English county.
Only one year ago Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson and Secretary of State David Mundell were stressing their opposition to any Brexit deal that treated Northern Ireland differently. Since then, Davidson has resigned, Mundell has been sacked and Scottish Tory MPs have done a 180-degree about-turn and will vote for BoJo’s Brexit deal, which treats Northern Ireland differently.
They have not secured a single concrete economic or social protection or concession for Scotland. They are literally useless.
No wonder the public in Scotland is deeply unhappy about the UK Brexit mess. In the most recent poll for Progress Scotland, which seeks to understand the open-minded and undecided on Scottish independence, the results are striking. Amongst these swing voters surveyed by Survation a major impact was noticeable because of Brexit regardless whether that involved a deal or not.
When asked whether “Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely”, a whopping 61% said they agreed. Only 13% said they disagreed, 21% chose neither and 4% didn’t know.
When asked whether “Brexit has changed my view on Scottish independence”, a majority agreed. That 53% stands in contrast to the 16% that disagreed, while 29% chose neither and 3% didn’t know.
When asked whether “an independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union”, 62% agreed and only 23% disagreed, while 16% chose neither and 5% didn’t know.
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As we know from independent polling experts like professor Sir John Curtice and Mark Diffley, and recent polls like last week’s by Panelbase for The Sunday Times or previously by Lord Ashcroft, the underlying level of support for independence has risen to a tipping point of 50%. We also know from amongst the open-minded and undecided voters that they are being strongly influenced by the Brexit experience.
Regardless how MPs vote at Westminster, the Brexit uncertainty is set to continue. A withdrawal agreement is just the start. What is clear, however, is that a majority of Scottish voters and parliamentarians are against Brexit. In contrast, a clear majority of the public is in favour of all decisions affecting people in Scotland being made by the Scottish Parliament and Government, regardless of which party is in power.
According to the recent poll for Progress Scotland, 62% – the same as the total that voted Remain – agree that decisions should be made in Scotland. There was a majority amongst both men and women, amongst every single age decile and in every single polling region in the country. Importantly, amongst voters that are open-minded or undecided about Scottish independence the level of support for making decisions in Scotland was found to be a huge 71%.
Scotland’s future is currently not in the hands of the people in Scotland. Our future is being determined by people we did not vote for and do not care about majority opinion in Scotland. This will change. It has to change. It will change when we have another vote on Scottish independence. Bring it on.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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