Jeremy Vine show misrepresents Scottish independence for second time

Standing in for Jeremy Vine, Anne Diamond asked guests Susie Boniface and Carole Malone whether they think Boris Johnson becoming PM increases the case for independence.

Boniface said Johnson "doesn't have much grasp of how borders operate" but then compared Scotland's situation to that of Tunbridge Wells which voted Remain by a small margin of 54.9%.

Yes, you heard that right, Scotland – a country – has been compared to an English town with a population of 118,061. That's pretty different to millions of Scots voting to leave the EU.

READ MORE: SNP MP's brilliant reply to Scotland jibe on Jeremy Vine

To make matters worse, we then heard from Brexiteer Malone who said: "I don't think there is a clamour for Scottish independence. I know Professor Richard Curtice who is the fountain of all knowledge on these says the last four polls have shown it's still not yes to leaving the Union, it's still a no, but the margin has narrowed.

"Since 2014 there have been 100 polls on independence and 11 of them have come out of them and said yes, people want to leave but 81 of them have said no, they don't want to leave, so people of Scotland do not want to leave."

In fact, John (not Richard) Curtice said a majority of Scots who backed Remain in the EU referendum now back independence.

The Strathclyde University professor said there had been “little evidence that the Brexit debate has moved the dial significantly on attitudes towards independence” – until recently.

Curtice said polls conducted between June and December 2018 suggested Leave voters were against independence at almost two to one, with 32% against and 63% for, while Remain voters were 47% for Yes and 47% for No.

But according to the four polls carried out between April and June this year, while Leave voters have remained broadly steady in their attitude towards independence, with 30% for and 64% against, a majority of Remain voters are now in favour of independence, at 51% for and 42% against.

READ MORE: Scottish independence: Majority of Scots Remain voters back Yes

Malone continued: "Nicola Sturgeon is using Brexit and the fear around Brexit to try to whip up fear. Her figure for the loss of jobs is 100,000. This has been done with her analysts in government. Actually, I would like to see that analysis because I just don't believe it. I don't believe a lot of what Nicola Sturgeon says.

"What she said at the last referendum, as did Alex Salmond who was in charge of the SNP at the time, he said this is a one in a lifetime chance and it was a 10% margin. People didn't expect it to be that big but it was a big margin. I believe if they had another one the margin would be the same."

Firstly, numerous businesses have said they will move out of the UK in the threat of a no-deal Brexit which is now looking like a reality. These include Vauxhall, Jaguar Land Rover and Honda.

Nicola Stugeon said a material change in circumstances, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will in the forthcoming in-out referendum on UK membership, could act as a trigger for a second referendum on independence

Since the EU referendum, the SNP has gained thousands of new members and won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats in the 2015 General Election – plus winning 38% in the European Parliament elections and three of the six seats.

Luckily Pete Wishart was there to dispel some of these myths.

He said: "Yesterday was a disastrous day for Boris. He was booed by the people of Scotland, cold-shouldered by his own branch office the Scottish Conservatives and then told what's what by the First Minister. I'm sure he was pretty glad to get over the border last night."

When Diamond asked the Perthshire MP if it would be as hard for Scotland to leave the Union as it is for the UK to leave the EU, he mentioned how about 24 countries have become independent in the past 25 years and how the UK is the first country to leave the EU. 

He was interrupted by Malone who asked why if he wanted to leave the Union he would be so willing to trade with the EU.

Looking baffled, Wishart responded: "I don't know where this myth emerges that we're going to stop trading with the United Kingdom. We're probably going to be looked on quite favourably to the rest of the UK whereas Europe is probably going to be looking quite antagonistically on it [the UK].

Malone interrupted again to exclaim: "That's what Boris is saying! We will still do business whether we leave the EU or not."

Whishart hit back, saying: "If you're seriously telling me the rest of the UK is going to cut off a market to Scotland then that's going to be their fault, nothing to do with us."

Malone and Boniface continued to discuss how Wishart was apparently making the same argument that leavers use when talking about the EU.

But Reverend Richard calmly stated that one of the problems is "Westminster has got more and more distant from the reality of Scottish politics and Scottish lives".

He added: "I think as long as that happens and there is a failure on the part of English Governments successively to understand the nature of Scotland and Scottish politics then I think when that gap gets wider, sooner or later, Scotland will quite rightly want to determine its own future."

He added that Johnson "widens that gap".

You can watch the full exchange here, the Scottish debate starts 13 minutes in.