THE majority of Scots who backed Remain in the EU referendum now back independence, top pollster John Curtice has said.
In analysis published on Monday on his What Scotland Thinks blog, the Strathclyde University professor said there had been “little evidence that the Brexit debate has moved the dial significantly on attitudes towards independence” – until recently.
Curtice said polls conducted between June and December 2018 suggested Leave voters were against independence at almost two to one, with 32% against and 63% for, while Remain voters were 47% for Yes and 47% for No.
READ MORE: Scottish independence: 51% of Scots want indyref2 now
But according to the four polls carried out between April and June this year, while Leave voters have remained broadly steady in their attitude towards independence, with 30% for and 64% against, a majority of Remain voters are now in favour of independence, at 51% for and 42% against.
Of those who did not vote in the EU referendum, including younger voters who were under 18 at the time, those in favour of Scottish independence have risen from 55% to 59% between the two polling periods analysed.
Curtice wrote: “In short, not only have recent polls suggested that there has been something of an increase in support for independence in recent months, but also that this rise has occurred entirely among those who voted Remain (and those who did not vote in 2016).
“It would seem that the Brexit impasse has motivated some Remain supporters in recent months to re-evaluate their attitudes towards the Union.
“If so, then we do not need to rely on the answers to hypothetical polling questions to conclude that the outcome of the Brexit process could potentially change the balance of support for independence versus staying in the Union – and so determine the future of the British state.”
Curtice also highlighted that the April-June polls indicated an average three-point swing in favour of independence – from the 45% result of the 2014 referendum to 48%.
Recent polling by Panelbase for the Sunday Times found a majority of voters (51%) backed independence in the event of a no-deal Brexit, while 53% said they would back independence if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister.
READ MORE: Why do the media keep allowing Jo Swinson to lie about indyref2?
Over the weekend, a new poll suggested there was an appetite in Scotland for a second independence referendum to take place sooner rather than later.
The research by Panelbase for the Sunday Times found that a total of 51% of Scots wanted indyref2 to be held either when the UK is negotiating to leave the EU or has finished the negotiations.
Only 48% of voters are against another independence referendum in the next few years.
Kirsty Hughes, from the Scottish Centre of European Research, tweeted: “So that’s either now (EU says talks are done) or October (when Boris Johnson claims he’ll redo the Brexit deal).”
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