SYMBOLISM matters in politics. While Boris Johnson likes to give the impression of being slightly dishevelled and disorganised, he is clearly focused on the impact he is making as the new UK Prime Minister. From his visit to Buckingham Palace, to the podium outside Number 10 Downing Street and House of Commons dispatch box, he used them all as a political backdrop for the launch of his new hardline Brexit government. Longstanding Tory watchers described the wholesale changing of the guard as a coup.
Boris Johnson and his transition team have also put some thought into how to deal with their unpopularity in Scotland. Public and internal polling shows the scale of the problem. Not only does the Scottish public not warm to the bumbling Tory toff routine, but his premiership is predicted to tip the scales in favour of Scottish independence.
This week coming, Boris Johnson wants to show that he is Prime Minister for the whole UK by holding a Cabinet meeting north of the Border. Of course, this is not a new idea. It was first tried by PM David Lloyd George, who convened the Cabinet in Inverness in 1921 – not to strengthen the Union, but to decide on the independence of Ireland. I’m sure that irony will not be lost on some observers today, given the UK’s Brexit backstop problems in relation to the British border in Ireland.
It will be helpful to have as many of the new hardline UK Cabinet ministers in Scotland as possible. It underlines the end of the myth of a modern moderate Scottish Conservative Party. Ruth Davidson has been sidelined and ignored by Boris Johnson. Despite her begging for David Mundell to be kept on as Secretary of State for Scotland, BoJo fired him and replaced him with a little-known Brexit fan. Alister Jack is best known in politics for having joined Brexit hardliners like Jacob Rees-Mogg and others in the European Research Group.
Shortly after his appointment, this landowner MP from the south-west of Scotland announced that the 62% vote in Scotland to remain in the EU didn’t count for anything, and that a hard Brexit would only involve some “bumps in the road”. Neither he nor Boris Johnson have a close working relationship with Ruth Davidson, and there is little prospect for improvement given the “Operation Arse” campaign by her supporters to block BoJo becoming prime minister.
This is likely to be tested within months as the chances grow of an early UK General Election. Despite all the hype and bravado by Boris Johnson about fundamentally renegotiating deals with Brussels, there is ZERO chance of that happening, and certainly not before the Brexit deadline at the end of October. With the parliamentary arithmetic not changing fundamentally to favour a no-deal Brexit, Johnson can’t be certain to deliver a no-deal Brexit.
That leaves him with only one option: seeking a General Election mandate from the voters, to give him the parliamentary majority necessary to push through a hardline Brexit. You can imagine hearing his advisers suggesting his pro-Brexit campaign will outflank Nigel Farage on the right, while demonising the waning leadership of Jeremy Corbyn on the left.
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WHERE stands Scotland in all of this I hear you ask? Clearly not at the top of his list. I know where I would put my money in a head-to-head contest in Scotland between the SNP and the Brexit-backing Tories. I firmly predict that the SNP will not only defend its majority of Westminster seats, but will gain from the other parties.
All of this will strengthen the SNP mandate for the Scottish Parliament to decide on holding the next Scottish independence referendum. Having already won elections to the Scottish Parliament, Westminster Parliament and European Parliament, and secured a majority in favour in the Scottish Parliament, the undemocratic excuses to block a democratic vote will no longer be sustainable.
In recent weeks Progress Scotland has been conducting focus groups to better understand the views of open-minded and undecided voters on Scottish independence. It is abundantly clear that the the new UK Prime Minister faces an uphill struggle to win over Scottish voters. Boris Johnson is seen as out of touch with voters in Scotland. In particular, participants feel negatively towards his attitudes towards the Brexit negotiation and will be alienated if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
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Amongst open-minded and undecided voters there is a desire for clarity on Brexit before the next independence referendum in Scotland, but the focus group research showed a significant majority in favour of another referendum when things are clearer. There is a very good chance that Boris Johnston will indeed be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
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