Why we need a positive alternative to Boris Johnson's Brexit

It is tempting – very, very tempting – to regard this contest as a free advert for independence. It is hard to imagine a less appealing process or set of prospects for the UK as a whole, but especially for Scotland.

This contest is dominated by the urge to deliver Brexit as quickly as possible and somehow rescue the Tory party from electoral oblivion. Neither of those missions are popular in Scotland but we do now know they are far more important to Tory members than the Union.

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But it tells us only what we know we absolutely don’t want. It would be a mistake to think it does all the work we need to win hearts and minds on what we do want.

There is absolutely no doubt that the prospect of a Boris Johnson prime ministership is driving a large wedge of Scots Pine into the relationship between the people of Scotland and the Conservative Party. The prospect of all of the alternatives on show would likewise, albeit to a lesser extent.

(While I have you can we all agree never to call this politician “Boris”, he does not deserve that affection. Can we call him Johnson please or if we are in our Sunday best, Mr Johnson?)

It seems as near a racing certainty as any contest can be that one of the two names on the ballot paper for Tory members will be Boris Johnson. And it seems almost as certain that the members of the party will – barring some sort of personal implosion that no-one who knows Johnson seems to wish to rule out – that he will then be elected as leader and therefore prime minister.

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What happens after that is, well, anyone’s guess.

What we do know is that this will be a prime minister with many character flaws that his own side despair about. And yet they still look set to choose him.

He is a man who has claimed no Scot should ever be prime minister again and that Scotland benefits more from money spent in London than here in Scotland. And these are two of the milder things he has said. His attitude to race, sexuality, women and responsibility all make him set to be regarded as Britain’s version of Donald Trump, with an international reputation to match.

The idea of this, I have no doubt, loosens the affection and connection for the idea of the Britain that many No voters in 2014 voted for. Brexit does this too, as has the misconduct and embarrassment of the UK Government and Parliament ever since.

It is not the world view, vision or standing that many people felt as they voted to maintain Scotland’s place in the UK almost five years ago.

But proponents of independence would be making a big mistake if they regard this as being enough to deliver the substantial majority I believe we will win when the question is put again. It helps to open minds, of this I have no doubt, but it is not sufficient to be against what is happening to the UK. Confidence is also needed in what can happen for Scotland.

There is a tension here we have to recognise because it is spoken to me every day: “I cannot stand what I am seeing with Brexit and the Tories and all, this is not the Britain I voted for. But why would I vote for another exit from an older union when this one is going so disastrously wrong?.”

Or words to that effect. I am sure we have all heard it.

It is a development of the other argument, “why leave a 300-year-old union just to walk straight back into another one”.

As if we were in any doubt, especially those of us who have been campaigning for it for decades, that Scottish independence will never drop into our laps. With one bound we will not be free.

We have to work for it, persuade for it and make a case that is the antidote and opposite to the Brexit one.

Our case must be honest, clear, recognising of the challenges but ambitious and positive about the opportunities. It must be candid on the risks of not choosing independence, because they have never been greater. It must not anchor in “I told you so” because that does not persuade.

We also have to recognise that change, as a concept for people, is difficult. The prospect of any reform of our lives is much less powerful and compelling in moving away from something we don’t like.

It is far more powerful and sustainable when we are moving toward something we want.

Brexit and Boris (oh sorry, I did what I said not to because of alliteration) loosen the ties with the past, but it is the Scotland we want to build that must attract people towards it.

And in articulating our case we need to remember that we embody and personify the reform we seek. It will be won by a respectful tone of persuasion and understanding. Remember how many of us feel about Brexit, that is how many of our fellow Scots feel about independence. But minds are opening and changing in remarkable places, this much is for certain.

I now believe that we will win going on for 60% of the vote when we get the chance to choose again. Because I believe that our prospectus has never been stronger, clearer, more considered or honest.

We do not, and must not, pretend that independence is an overnight panacea for the troubles of the country and the world.

It is a means to an end not an end in itself. It brings the toolkit we need to build a more successful and sustainable society and economy.

We have a plan that will ensure an orderly transition and stability as we build the institutions and government we need to make our own choices and engage with the wider world.

It will be hard work, it will be challenging, it will take an effort over many years. But as the best performing small countries in the world demonstrate, it will be worth it and we won’t look back.