How long until support for independence is made a terrorist offence?

I look back on the time when this was my priority when writing for this paper with nostalgia. The sad thing is, the world has changed, the evidence of which you see on these pages every day.

A dark reality is unfolding elsewhere and, regrettably, it cannot be ignored within Scotland’s political economy. I watch events unfold in England, the US, Israel and beyond, and trends with particular relevance to Scotland’s political economy are becoming increasingly clear to me, almost by the day. The first is just how different Scotland is from England. Come to that, it is also clear just how different Wales and Northern Ireland are from England.

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Scotland, except in the traditionally Tory Border regions, appears to have no real interest in Reform. In Wales, opinion polls suggest Plaid Cymru are in the lead, although Reform are not far behind.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, it is increasingly evident that the majority support Sinn Fein and its Irish unification agenda, as many now do throughout the island as a whole.

What the people of all three countries are making clear is that they want nothing to do with the far right, the politics of division and hate and the parties that promote that agenda, as well as the associated economics of neoliberalism, whether that be Reform, Labour or the Conservatives. Most especially, those toxic parties have been identified as such in Scotland and have been rejected by most people.

In contrast, the latest opinion polls in England suggest Reform might win a majority of parliamentary seats and that between them these parties might have 70% electoral support.

The result of all this is clear: the UK is markedly divided, rather than united.

So what, you might ask? Isn’t this just a continuation of a trend that has been apparent in Scotland for some time, has been very obviously developing in Northern Ireland, and is now becoming increasingly apparent in Wales? The answer is that such a reaction might be correct but the context has changed. The people and governments of all three countries might be opposed to Westminster within a year or so, but at the same time what we are seeing is a massive development around the politics of opposition in the US. This is already being mimicked by the Labour UK Government, which might have serious ramifications for the future of independence movements.

At the end of last month, Donald Trump signed an executive order as president of the US that was supposedly about “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organised Political Violence”.

It began by saying: “Heinous assassinations and other acts of political violence in the United States have dramatically increased in recent years.

“Even in the aftermath of the horrifying assassination of Charlie Kirk, some individuals who adhered to the alleged shooter’s ideology embraced and cheered this evil murder while actively encouraging more political violence. This was preceded by the 2024 assassination of a senior healthcare executive and the 2022 assassination attempt against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.”

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Let me be clear. The evidence to support what Trump did was decidedly flimsy. The attempted assassin of Brett Kavanaugh turned herself in to the police before attempting the act.

In the other two cases, no-one is sure of the motives; in the healthcare case, it may have been nothing more than a grudge. And in a country riddled with guns, such things happen. What has never happened before, though, is a reaction of the type Trump has promoted on the basis of this flimsy justification.

He declared: “[The] common threads animating this violent conduct include anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity; support for the overthrow of the United States government; extremism on migration, race, and gender; and hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.”

In other words, all the foundations of a Scotland that many people would desire – such as social democracy and respect for all whoever they might be, whatever gender they might have, whatever their sexual orientation is, whatever their beliefs and faith are, however they choose to live and wherever they might have come from – have now been declared by Trump to be indicative of support for terrorism. Similarly, supporting any economic system other than capitalism is also deemed to be either a potential terrorist act or at least a sign of someone supporting political violence. And yet most people in Scotland are all too aware of the destruction Thatcherite capitalism has brought to its economy.

We can, of course, say Trump is unhinged. We could say that the same could not happen here. And we could say all this is just nonsense we should ignore. But that would be naïve in the extreme.

That is partly because the move from Trump is clearly based on precedents used by Stalin in Russia in the 1920s and Hitler in Germany in the 1930s. Many millions died as a result of laws as arbitrary, absurd and straightforwardly stupid as those Trump has now passed.

It is also because there are already signs that the politics of England are moving in this direction. Labour have already made writing that you support Palestine Action on a piece of cardboard an offence punishable by imprisonment for up to 14 years, showing how far they have already moved in the direction of Trump and his political extremism.

And now, in the wake of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s speech at the Labour Party conference, in which he suggested that Reform’s policy on expelling people with Indefinite Leave to Remain in the UK was racist, even though his own Home Secretary had just announced remarkably similar proposals, Reform have very loudly suggested Starmer was promoting political violence as a consequence – clearly aping the line Trump is using, and making it clear that if they ever got near power similar laws would undoubtedly be introduced across the UK.

In that case, it is quite reasonable to ask how long it will be before supporting independence becomes a terrorist offence. After all, note that Trump has deemed supporting the overthrow of the US government a thing, and seeking to break the Union within the UK could obviously be considered in the same category if his move were copied here, as I think is likely.

Where the US goes, the UK has a horrible habit of following. Worse, Labour, Reform and the Tories seem determined on that course of action and all align themselves with Trump in supporting Israel, however heinous its genocide. If there is one thing we know, it is that fascists do what they say they will.

How will Scotland react to such a situation? That has to be the question for everyone in the country now. Scotland’s freedom to choose is at risk. Many in the country might be deemed to be terrorists before too long. Those who might enact such laws have already given you due warning. Now, what is to be done about it?