I HAVE been asked many times recently why the Scottish Government has moved away from its decade long (and incredibly popular) focus on transitioning towards a wellbeing economy and adopted a more conservative GDP growth based strategy.
The answer is that the SNP are de-emphasising their more ambitious projects, anything that could be described, even incorrectly, as radical thinking.
Why?
Because they just suffered heavy defeat in the General Election and the first goal of any political party is to get elected. After big setbacks, parties tend to revert to what has worked in the past instead of looking forward.
The SNP leadership clearly supports and wants to deliver independence but they are choosing the path with, what they see as having, less risk.
However, the fact is, being highly conservative in their economic approach and offering a none definable "hope" rather than "independence" as their 2026 election promise is the riskiest path possible.
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That fact seems obvious to the SNP membership and crucially to its voters but less so to its leadership and that’s the biggest risk they face.
The recent 54% Yes poll is good news but it's driven by three main factors:
- The SNP delivered a competent budget after years of governance issues and those accusations of fraud and wrongdoing.
- The passing of Alex Salmond (a true giant of the independence movement) has garnered sympathy and renewed focus on the cause.
- Keir Starmer’s fondness for Thatcherite policy, otherwise known as the self-destruct button.
All of those factors might be temporary unless the Scottish Government gets on the front foot on independence and offers real defined and measurable change.
Make no mistake, voters now realise that Labour have nothing to offer and are looking for someone else to offer the real change they hoped for when they voted Labour at the last General Election.
Labour’s coat is on a very shoogly-peg
Starmer's landslide victory was gained with less votes than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour received when he lost. England decides the political make-up of UK governments, due to the size of relative populations and English voters have moved significantly to the right of Scotland.
Reform has moved ahead of Labour in some polls, even recently winning a St Helens Council by-election with 41% of the vote, they are predicted to have around a dozen MSPs after Holyrood 2026 and the bookies now have Nigel Farage as favourite to be the next Prime Minister - that would be real change.
Looking at the data tables for the Norstat 54% poll, the stand out finding is that 40% of people who voted Reform in Scotland at the 2024 General Election support independence. It's a small sample size, but suggests Reform have more Scottish indy supporters in their ranks than Con 21%, Lab 31% and Lib Dem 36%.
To be clear, the SNP are not polling at 54%, independence is. Unless the Scottish Government doubles down on independence and allows for the creation of a more ambitious and, yes, more radical vision for independence, then that 54% will fade, just as previous leads based on comparative competence in Government have done.
Successfully mitigating Westminster's failings demonstrates good governance but good governance is what people expect. It might get the SNP back with minimal losses or even gains, if Labour continues to disappoint, but it doesn’t inspire and it won’t maintain independence support at 54%.
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The core issue is that good governance in a Holyrood system, designed by Westminster to fail, isn’t a long term strategy for success.
The Scottish government is hamstrung by limited powers preventing them from tackling the route cause of issues and championing radical change from Westminster's neoliberal capitalism and the harm it’s doing to society, the economy and the planet.
So how do we stop Reform at the border and most importantly, how do we get that 54% support for independence to mean something?
We need a plan that demonstrates a clear path to delivering independence with a wellbeing economy for Scotland at its heart so lets go to the people through a Citizen’s’ Convention, let’s engage millions of Scots to share their hopes and dreams for a better Scotland and when they design that an ambitious future that can only be delivered via independence, offer it back to them in a radical manifesto written by the people, as the core reason for independence.
Is it a little risky?
I suppose, but it will break the constitutional deadlock and we already know from past polling commissioned by Believe in Scotland that the key difference from what is possible through Westminster and currently on offer from the Scottish Government is that the people will choose a path that fits with the wellbeing economic approach.
Polling has demonstrated that a wellbeing economic approach at the core to the independence cause takes support to around 60%. It also demonstrated that it is possible to get a majority of Labour voters and English born voters on side with independence with the right message.
That message is wellbeing and includes a wellbeing pension - something the SNP, to their great credit, have already committed to.
If the SNP want a majority (with or without the Greens) after the next Scottish Elections they must engage the people with a Citizens’ Convention and link the nation's wellbeing to its independence.
Do that then they can stop Reform at the border and put Scotland back on the rapid path to independence.
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp is the CEO of Business for Scotland, the chief economist at the wellbeing economics think tank Scotianomics, the founder of the Believe in Scotland campaign, and the author of Scotland the Brief.
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