THIS week I want to consider a particular brand of SNP refusenik. They may have voted SNP once. They certainly do not regard themselves as supporters of anyone else. They will tell you they are passionate supporters of Scottish independence, and that it is one of the main factors in determining how they vote.
And yet, they did not, and will not, vote for the SNP, a party whose avowed central aim is the furtherance of the thing in which they believe.
To be clear, I’m not talking about people who support independence but consistently vote for another party – the Greens, SSP or even perhaps a Unionist party (there are still some). Nor am I talking about those who have never voted for anyone, believing the bourgeois electoral process to be part of a global conspiracy to deny expression.
The people I have in mind are among the half-million or so voters who voted for the party in 2019 but declined to do so last month. Some will have voted for Alba. Some may have spoiled their ballot paper. Most simply stayed at home.
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The SNP need to find a way to get them back. Two caveats. I’m not suggesting this is the most important group the party should concentrate on. More of a priority is winning back supporters who switched to Labour, or indeed to winning new supporters in the first place.
I’m also not sure how many there are. In the absence of a proper survey, we have only anecdotal and piecemeal evidence to go on. But the numbers are significant. Besides, these people are among those who ought to be the core support of a party which aspires to be the political expression of the aspiration for Scottish independence.
So why aren’t they? By and large because they have lost faith in the party to deliver on its – and their – central objective. In the many doorstep conversations I had about this during the election campaign, there were several variations on this theme. Some believe the party is no longer committed to securing independence.
Others accept that independence is still the objective of the party but argue it does not have a viable strategy to achieve it. And some will tell you that party leaders have betrayed the cause by failing to discharge the mandate it got in 2021.
I don’t agree or sympathise with any of this but it is real, and it would be folly to ignore these attitudes in the hope they will disappear of their own accord.
These views are built upon a lot of understandable frustration at the lack of progress towards self-government which has metastasised into anger and alienation. The blame has been directed internally rather than focused on the government and agencies of the British state which denied the democratic expression of Scottish opinion.
This is reinforced by continuous attacks by our opponents in a compliant media which exaggerates the perceived failures of the party in government without context or qualification. And by divisive internal splits over policy and the occasional spectacular own goal.
The process of party renewal which should consume all of us in the next 18 months must include trying to win people back. To instil once again trust and confidence in our collective ability to change the way our country is governed.
Maybe some will be lost to the ranks of conspiracy theorists but many people could be persuaded if we apply calm, thoughtful and persistent argument.
Some of these arguments are the same ones we need to win over those not persuaded of the benefits of independence in the first place.
We begin by having a strategy which explains the necessary steps to achieving independence, making it clear that there is no quick fix and no shortcut to popular consent.
Step one requires a fresh approach to what we are doing in the Scottish Parliament, highlighting the constraints and limitations of devolution and explaining how the power of independence removes them.
Step two will be drawing up a campaign plan for 2026 based not just on celebrating the Scottish Government’s achievements but articulating a demand for specific new powers to allow it to go further.
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In essence, seeking a mandate to demand that the UK Government introduces a new Scotland Act to increase the competence and remit of Holyrood.
Step three will be to insist on the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own constitutional future and to remove the barriers which the Supreme Court confirmed exist to their elected representatives in the Scottish Parliament discussing the matter.
This should be central to a new suite of powers devolved to Scotland and ought to be the focus of a broad-based civil society campaign for democratic reform.
Step four would be to win an election on this basis and build a wide political consensus in Scotland for these changes which would force the UK Government to respond.
None of this is easy. None of it is quick. It will require patience and persistence. But it offers a route forward for anyone who wants to get back on board.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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