IT’S day two of the post-Bute Agreement Scottish Government and the question which dominates the media is whether the administration led by First Minister Humza Yousaf can survive.
Following the First Minister's decision to pull the plug on the deal, the infuriated Scottish Greens announced that they would support a Scottish Conservative motion of no confidence in him – because voting with a party which counts climate change deniers amongst its major donors and has very close ties to the fossil fuel industry is a really good look for the Greens.
There is increasing pressure from grassroots members of the Greens for their MSPs not to support a mischief-making Scottish Tory motion, and it is possible that between now and the time that the vote takes place one or more Green MSPs may decide that they cannot support a Conservative motion.
The decision of the Scottish Tories to put forward a no-confidence motion in the First Minister was followed this morning by the decision of the Labour contingent at Holyrood to put forward a motion of no confidence in the Scottish Government.
READ MORE: Humza Yousaf 'not ruling out early Holyrood election' as he faces no-confidence votes
The decision of the Scottish Greens means that Humza Yousaf's political future hinges upon the vote of former SNP leadership contender Ash Regan, who defected from the SNP to join Alba and is now that party's sole representative in Holyrood.
Without the support of the Scottish Greens, her decision means that the SNP is one vote short of producing a tie.
Ash Regan has written to the First Minister indicating her willingness to negotiate. In a statement published on Twitter, she wrote: "I have written to Humza Yousaf this morning requesting a reset, and a return to competent government, where we prioritise independence and protect the dignity, safety and rights of women and children. I remain open to any discussion where we progress the priorities of the people of Scotland."
One area in which she is likely to seek a deal in return for her vote is Scottish Government backing for her bill seeking to hold a referendum on whether the people of Scotland wish the Scottish Parliament to have the power to hold another independence referendum.
READ MORE: Ex-Scottish secretary in Ash Regan indyref2 bill warning to Humza Yousaf
The bill has so far stalled because it has not received the necessary level of support from other MSPs. However, that could change if the Alba MSP receives support for the bill from the SNP as a quid pro quo for her vote in a motion of no confidence.
Regan told the press that she was happy to see the end of Scottish Green "extremism" in the Scottish Government and said that she would work with the SNP on a case-by-case basis.
She sees her referendum bill as a means of circumventing the decision of the UK Supreme Court that the Scottish Parliament lacks the legal competence to pass legislation for a second independence referendum.
Although the UK Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood cannot pass a bill for a second independence referendum without a Section 30 order from the Westminster government, the Alba MSP noted: "However, there is nothing to stop our Parliament proposing a referendum, which we believe would be within competence, and that is to ask the people whether they believe the powers of the Parliament should be extended to include the right to legislate for and negotiate independence."
The Labour manoeuvres
Anas Sarwar's motion of no confidence goes further than the Scottish Tory no-confidence motion and if successful could bring down the Scottish Government and produce an early Holyrood election.
Sarwar is seeking to capitalise on the SNP's difficulties and bring about a Scottish Parliament with an anti-independence majority.
He and his British nationalist fellow travellers would then cite that outcome as “proof” that the people of Scotland do not want another independence referendum – even though Sarwar himself strongly denied that the election of a pro-independence majority to Holyrood in an election dominated by the issue of another independence referendum in any way meant that the people actually wanted one.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Sarwar.
The Labour motion has less chance of success than the Tory one. The Scottish Greens have not said so far whether they'd support it as a group, and if they did they would be voting against a government in which they had played a pivotal role since the signing of the Bute House Agreement in August 2021.
However, in a sign that the Scottish Greens may not back the Labour motion, MSP Green MSP Mark Ruskell said: "Labour clearly don't want this motion to pass.
“It was the poor judgment of Humza in ending the Bute House Agreement that is in question, not the record of the SNP/Green [government]."
If Ash Regan does indeed agree to vote with the SNP, and you can be certain that strenuous efforts will be being made to bring her on board, the opportunistic Labour motion will fail even if the Scottish Greens do decide to back it, although judging by Ruskell's remarks it appears that some at least will not.
Both votes of no confidence could be held as early as Wednesday of next week. Between now and then there will be back room wheeling and dealing going on in order to ensure the survival of the First Minister and the Scottish Government.
Should either vote succeed, the Parliament would have 28 days to find another First Minister who could receive majority support in Holyrood. If that proves to be impossible there would have to be an early election – meaning that for the first time since the introduction of the devolution settlement Scotland could face the prospect of a Westminster General Election and a Scottish Parliamentary election in the same year.
This piece is an extract from today’s REAL Scottish Politics newsletter, which is emailed out at 7pm every weekday with a round-up of the day's top stories and exclusive analysis from the Wee Ginger Dug.
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