SCOTLAND could be more of an “obstacle than opportunity” for Labour to win a majority at the next General Election, with SNP voters not yet switching to Keir Starmer’s party, according to a pollster.
Despite the crisis following Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation as party leader, the percentage of people switching from SNP to Labour has remained stuck at 10% between January and April, a blog published by the LabourList website has highlighted.
Article author Joe Alder. a research associate at polling firm JL Partners, said focus group findings showed the police investigation into SNP finances has led to some expressing doubts about their party – with SNP voters falling from around 70% to 57% in April.
However, these voters do not appear to have been put off from supporting the SNP in the long run and it was “widely felt” that any wrongdoing is being exaggerated by a hostile media - with one voter commenting it is like “the forces of Sauron and Saruman” in Lord of the Rings.
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Following the local elections in England, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar rubbished the idea of any coalition deal with the SNP after the General Election, saying his party were now on course to win a majority of seats.
"It is absolutely clear that those results demonstrate that we would have a majority Labour government because there weren’t elections in Scotland, Wales and in London," he said.
"If you add those results across local government results that you saw in England, with what we expect to happen in Scotland, Wales but also in London, we can deliver that majority Labour government.”
In the blog, Alder said Scotland stands as “the gateway” to a Labour majority and the SNP were more vulnerable than at any point since 2015.
However, he said polls showed SNP supporters were not switching to Labour yet and instead the number who are undecided over whether they would vote for the party has doubled form 8% to 16%, with some moving to Greens and other parties.
He added: “This is where focus groups can offer real insight. While our undecided voters clearly viewed [Humza] Yousaf as a downgrade, their enduring party loyalty meant they viewed him through a hopeful, optimistic lens.
“Yousaf was described as focused, confident, honest – ‘not frightened to stand up to anyone.’ As one put it: ‘I really want him to do well’.
“While not bowled over by Yousaf as yet, these voters continue to bear him goodwill and are willing to give him a chance.
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“This underlines the least tangible but perhaps most important insight from the group. At bottom, these voters still think of themselves as SNP supporters, if not currently voters.
“Where many 2019 Conservatives have suffered a fundamental break and a deep loss of confidence, these voters seem merely to be taking a step back.
“That is why it is plausible that, after a mid-term wobble, these voters will return to what still feels their natural home – the SNP.”
Alder said it was possible that SNP voters will move away from the party in the run-up to the next election, if for example the sense of scandal deepens, but said that right now this “appears insubstantial”.
The blog concluded: “Labour cannot yet rely on these voters to pave their path to a majority.”
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