Let’s ask who gains from the Istanbul bombing

This time, the official account of what happened, which conveniently brought in all the government’s adversaries, has already been shown to be riven with contradictions, as well as being inherently incredible.

The day after Sunday’s attack, which killed six and injured 81, the Turkish government released pictures of a woman in a large purple sweatshirt inscribed with the words New York, cowering between two Turkish flags.

This, interior minister Suleyman Soylu, claimed, was the captured bomber, who had been sent by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish Syria-based Peoples Protection Units (YPG).(Turkey refuses to distinguish between the two organisations.)

She was said to have been given her instructions in Kobane – the Kurdish Syrian city that turned the tide against ISIS, which Turkey is itching to invade – and to have intended to escape to Greece. Soylu refused to accept American condolences for the bombing in order to reinforce his government’s displeasure at the United States working with the YPG in the fight against ISIS.

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This cowering woman – who had even allowed herself to be caught with the clothes still in her flat that she had been wearing on the CCTV footage of the bombing – makes a most unconvincing PKK or YPG operative. We have also been told, at different times, that she entered Turkey via Afrîn or Idlib – two regions under the effective control of the Turkish army, where anyone with a YPG connection is treated as a traitor – and, now, it seems that at least one of those arrested as part of the conspiracy has social media links with Turkish-backed jihadi militants operating in the region.

Even more striking – and it is interesting that the information was released – the “bomber’s” phone has been found to have received two phone calls from a regional chair of the National Movement Party (MHP) – the far-right coalition partner of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

While every new piece of evidence raises more questions over the Turkish government’s story, the biggest problem is that their main claim does not make any sense. In every crime we need to ask who benefits. In this case, the PKK and YPG would not only gain nothing from the bombing, they stand to lose a great deal from being associated with it.

The YPG has always been very careful to insist that it poses no threat to Turkey. Turkey has invaded parts of northern Syria anyway, but the YPG does not intend to give them any excuse to go further. The PKK argues that they have been listed as a terrorist organisation without evidence and they are taking their case to the EU’s Court of Justice. The last thing that they would want to do is jeopardise their chances in this vital case.

Behaviourally, YPG or PKK involvement also doesn’t fit the official story. Both follow the Geneva Conventions and do not attack civilians. Both have firmly denied any involvement, but they were only able to do so after the Turkish government’s claims had been repeated by media around the world.

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By contrast, the Turkish government does have a history of blaming the PKK for acts done by third parties or even by the government themselves. And, as in 2015, the Turkish government and jihadi militants, who work closely together in the occupation of parts of northern Syria, would be the winners from any terrorist attack that could be blamed on the Kurds.

Both want to see the Kurds discredited at home and abroad, and both would welcome the excuse created by this scenario to carry out an attack on Kobane.

The next Turkish election – for both parliament and president – must take place by June next year, and widespread economic hardship has lost President Erdogan and his AKP a lot of support.

He has not achieved the vote-winning victory he has been looking for, despite extensive military actions against the PKK in their mountain bases, where there have been repeated allegations of Turkish use of banned chemical weapons; and, thus far, the United States and Russia have not sanctioned another full-scale Turkish attack on the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

“Kurdish” threats to domestic security, or a war against Kobane, could be used to incite people to rally round the government, and to force the mainstream opposition group, centred round the Republican People’s Party (CHP), to come in behind the government’s actions. No other politicians would dare work with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and if the HDP were to be closed down, as currently threatened, crucial Kurdish voters would have no one to whom they could give their vote.

The Istanbul bomb makes no sense as an attack by the Kurds, but every sense as an attack against them.

And there are very real fears that this bombing may be just the beginning of some very bloody months.