A CURIOUS narrative about Scotland has emerged from the three-month meltdown of the UK Conservatives. It holds that Sir Keir Starmer will be swept to power by such a massive landslide in 2024 that Scottish Labour will inevitably benefit from the resulting bounce. And, as this would effectively neutralise the Holyrood majority for independence, the dream of self-determination would evaporate for the foreseeable future.

For Scottish Labour, as well as their fellow travellers in the Scottish Tories, this is a beguiling prospect. Without having to do very much, they would be back in the game at Holyrood, having been reduced to the status of holders of the jaikets for most of the last 15 years.

Until Rishi Sunak’s elevation by 200 members of a hard-right cult, this notion might have held some credence. After all, Sir Keir was doing quite nicely in the polls by sticking closely to the Napoleon imperative: never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake. And, ever since Covid-19 began to stalk this island, the UK Tories have been one massive aberration of historic proportions.

Labour’s recent surges in the UK polls had little to do with anything Sir Keir was proposing. There are statues in the Glasgow metropolis which have shown more sense of purpose than the Labour leader since he was elected two years ago. Rather, it had everything to do with the fact that he isn’t a borderline-psychotic, narcissistic charlatan like Boris Johnson, or a barely-coherent hedge fund glove puppet like Liz Truss.

READ MORE: Scottish Parliament consents to UK Government's energy support bill

All that latterly separated Sir Keir from the UK Tory leadership was that he began appearing with two Union Jacks at his back rather than the mere single ensign the Tories began deploying as their television props.

He waited for the weekly malfeasances and inchoate splutterings of Johnson and Truss, and then stood there in his bland suit and with his funereal demeanour looking disappointed. He was the bank manager who expresses empathy when you tell him you’ve been made redundant but nonetheless insists on repossessing your home.

You find yourself barely managing to suppress a chuckle when Labour supporters get all sanctimonious about the new Prime Minister’s reputed £750 million family fortune. He’s so removed from the day-to-day reality of people’s lives, they say.

Listen up, you roasters: It’s the bloody Tories we’re talking about. Do they think there are High Tories out there jouking about in hi-vis jackets and working for the council as health and safety officials?

Of course, Sir Keir, the People’s Millionaire is reputedly worth a much more morally circumspect and humble £8m or so. Which I suppose really does make him “one of us” compared to Sunak.

The Labour leader won’t be getting it all his way now, though. And yes I know it’s easy to deride the notion of Sunak being “the grown-up in the room”. But that’s essentially the grift that Sir Keir has been peddling for the last two years. If he continues with that performance he risks merely looking like a Poundland Sunak.

The new Prime Minister also has decent-looking suits; doesn’t have a hair out of place; and seems erudite and concerned about issues. Let’s be honest here – that’s basically been UK Labour’s entire strategic offering since 2020. Now they’re up against a Tory leader who is all of that, but with the added X-factor that comes with real power. Sir Keir Starmer is going to have to get a different scriptwriter.

Nor can anyone discount the very real cultural import that Sunak’s appointment represents. The image of this Hindu man surrounded by stale, white Tories which adorned yesterday’s front pages is a very powerful and poignant one.

REGARDLESS of his fortune and privileged circumstances, this man’s promotion to the most powerful job in the land is a massive statement of anti-racist intent which will make many British people of colour from minority communities walk a little taller this week.

Certainly, UK Labour must still be considered favourites to win the 2024 election. But Sunak has two years to revive his party’s fortunes. He will reduce the deficit in the polls simply by seeming to be honest with the electorate and looking like he knows what he’s talking about. It’s been more than three years since anyone has been able to say that about the occupant of Number 10.

Sunak will restore gravitas, dignity and a sense of moral purpose to the UK’s greatest office of state and those who think otherwise are deluding themselves. For the SNP, a Sunak premiership represents a different challenge, too. Unlike his two immediate predecessors the new Prime Minister will cut a more impressive figure if he chooses to visit Scotland. Already, he has signalled he won’t indulge in the infantile invective around Scottish independence favoured by Johnson and Truss.

I simply can’t see him making appeals to the baser instincts of the Tories and the Unionist right when it comes to advocating for remaining in the UK. And while he had little choice other than to bring in the furlough scheme and help for small businesses during lockdown his strategists and advisers will still insist on making much of this.

READ MORE: Michael Gove made Levelling Up secretary in Rishi Sunak's cabinet shake-up

That all said, Sunak is head of a party that is unmistakably corrupt and, during the course of a pandemic which threatened the health of millions of UK citizens, was exposed as morally bankrupt. Latterly, it was exposed as the factory team of hedge fund opportunists, dark money and ultra-capitalism to a degree never before witnessed.

And while Johnson could claim an electoral mandate to justify rejecting a second referendum (supplied to him by the SNP who put up candidates to fight for Westminster seats), Sunak has none.

The SNP must think long and hard about how they deal with Sunak. He will give Unionism a new lease of life and a sense of ethical propriety that’s been lacking for the last few years.

Regrettably, during those years the SNP have failed to take advantage of the moral vacuum at the heart of the UK Government. Their three white papers have failed to signal anything new, while envisaging an independent Scotland wedded to the same capitalist forces which have revelled in GB plc.

This territory though, is much more familiar to Sunak than the SNP. Like Starmer and the Labour Party, the SNP may also have to find a different script.

They could start by encouraging their elected members in both houses to talk about Scottish independence as much as they talk about Ukrainian nationhood.