The Scottish Government’s Budget data is readily accessible on the web, and in a commendable format that is a lot easier to understand than the data available for the UK. I will be using data from this source in what follows.

The reality is that the Scottish Budget for April 2022 to March 2023 is £56.5bn. Legally the Scottish Government is required to balance its books. And as a matter of fact the vast majority of the income that it gets with which to achieve this goal is beyond the Scottish Government’s management and control, either because it is the block grant, or it is a deemed part of a UK tax (as is the case with VAT) or it is from taxes which are under Scottish control but which, because of the way in which the devolution settlement is framed, can only vary to a limited degree from similar taxes operated in the rest of the UK. Income tax is the prime example of this second type of tax, and the others are too small to make a difference. These are facts.

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So too is it a fact that we are currently facing an economic meltdown, with worse to come. Inflation is heading for 11%. Unsurprisingly people want pay rises to try to protect their standards of living in the face of an assault on their wellbeing of this scale. And because of that inflation rate some of the costs that the Scottish Government has to manage – and most especially its social security budget – are going to increase significantly as protection for the most vulnerable in society is sought, and with demand for this support also increasing as the recession hits.

Add these facts up and it is apparent that there must be real stresses within the Scottish Government’s budget at present. For example, the published budget for pay increases suggested that a figure of between 2% and 3% was, overall, budgeted for the coming year. Given that would now leave some of the lowest paid employees of the Government facing impossible difficulties in balancing their own households it is almost inconceivable that this budget will not increase to between 4 and 6%.

In fact, overall it is fair to imagine that across all departments and budget headings there will be pressure to find at east another 4% to 5% of the budget to deal with wholly unanticipated costs that no one was imagining likely when this budget was set. Just making the payments due for heating, lighting and transport costs will punch holes in the budgets of many departments, and these increases cannot be avoided. Anyone who suggests otherwise, or who suggests that this level of inflation was anticipated even late last year, is in denial of the truth.

Five per cent of the Scottish Government Budget is £2.8bn. If there weren’t unanticipated costs of more than £2bn this year that Kate Forbes and her team were having to consider how to manage as a result then she would be pulling off an economic miracle that I doubt anyone could achieve.

So, let’s accept that there is a problem with the Scottish Government’s funding right now and instead discuss what can be done about it. First, note that this issue is peculiar to the devolved governments. Inflation automatically increases the UK government’s revenues. The VAT take rises as prices do. So too do many duties charged on fuels and energy increase with inflation. And all of these extra taxes go to Westminster.

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If a share is moved on to Holyrood, as is the case with VAT, then the block grant is reduced as a result. So, whilst Scotland might struggle, I expect Westminster will enjoy tax revenues that might increase by maybe £30bn this year. If Scotland got its fair share of this sum then the Scottish Government’s Budget problems would be solved. If there was any justice in this world that would happen.

And this hints at the real problem. The devolution settlement never anticipated an era when the costs of the Scottish Government would be impacted by nationwide inflation rates but its revenues were those that either would not rise as a result of inflation or would rise by less than inflation (as is the case with income tax, because wages are not going to increase by 11%). There was, in that case, an automatic inflation penalty built into the devolution settlement. The inflation upside is all with London. The downside is all with Scotland.

The reality is that I am quite sure that the SNP government is appreciating this right now. If it was not addressing the issue it would be profoundly worrying. But what is required is not some mindless shouting from those who are in opposition in Scotland. Instead all parties in Scotland who have any interest in securing power should be joining together to demand a better settlement for Scotland to address this issue.

What should that settlement be? In the short term it should be an inflation uplift to the block grant. In the long term it has to ensure that Scotland is not denied a share of the revenues that inflation drives upwards, like VAT. It is these taxes that will provide the buffer to Westminster as it seeks to tackle increased costs. They should share them with Scotland. Nothing less will do, and it’s beholden on all parties to say so at this moment because the failing that exists is not that of the SNP, but of the system that they are having to manage within.