BORIS Johnson is on the ropes – and this time it looks terminal. Almost.
After all that waiting, the final nail may have been hammered in by Laura Kuenssberg – not Sue Gray. Her Panorama on Tuesday night had pictures, voiced-up confessions, salacious detail and unforgettable images, like the picture of Johnson at the front of one leaving do, raising a glass to toast his team.
These vivid, brazen images are likely to stick in the craw of those whose loved ones died while they followed the Covid rules and rather overshadowed the long-awaited Sue Gray report, despite its own more decorous details of rows, drunken parties and vomiting episodes. Both reports revealed that a bottle and rubbish-strewn mess regularly greeted Downing Street cleaners after staff parties.
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That should be as bad as it can get. And any other political leader would have resigned long ago.
But from yesterday’s statement it’s clear Johnson will hing on and hope the next, final hurdle – the Commons’ own investigation – doesn’t conclude that he lied to parliament.
In the meantime, Johnson was doing what he does best – diverting attention from his own shameful behaviour by blaming others.
His Commons statement was a masterclass of deflection and deceit.
Boris assured MPs that he wasn’t “mitigating” the parties that happened on his watch, within his government and on his premises but then went on to do just that – describing the vast labyrinthine complex behind Downing Street as almost impossible to police – the kind of place that could easily give the Tardis a run for its money.
Then Johnson listed the number of days with parties (small) compared to the number of days without parties (larger). So, in relative terms – went the unspoken suggestion – any breaches of ministerial codes were so small as to be utterly insignificant.
Still, Johnson insisted, he wanted to take full responsibility (what a diamond geezer) though by the by, Sue Gray was actually fair impressed with changes he’d already made, including sacking the entire layer of senior management. See loyalty to yer staff, see mince.
Then Boris confided in MPs: “I am humbled and I have learned a lesson.”
As the Speaker trying to suppress sniggers, groans and open laughter from opposition MPs, the most brazen liar to set foot in Downing Street, just smiled.
Aye – he’s learned a lesson.
If you can look chastened, sound crestfallen, accuse your opponents of doing the same thing, bang on (voice rising to a righteous crescendo) about the vaccine rollout, war in Ukraine and (not) getting Brexit done – then pass the buck in a cleverly oblique way by defending folk no-one is actually blaming – the thousands of non-partying civil servants who were busy working on (here it comes again) vaccine roll-outs and furlough payments – you may just survive.
Bluster, counter-attack, shameless defiance, a concerted attempt to “move the agenda on” and a selective reading of Sue Gray’s words – no mention of her assertion that junior staff could hardly be blamed for getting bladdered, since they saw Ministers wellying in – it was classic Boris.
The question is – was it enough?
Well, Alister Jack’s backing him – so what can go wrong?
But seriously, all eyes will now be on the ranks of craven Tory MPs who’ll be calculating whether their chances of re-election are higher with Johnson or without him, and if lower, when to get rid of him.
Inevitably, the Westminster press corps will waste the next month until recess trying to tease out backbench opinion. But chances are – with Rishi Sunak blotting his copybook and Liz Truss continuing to underwhelm with her wooden Thatcher tribute act – Johnson will manage to stumble through to the summer.
And events might conspire to help him.
A massive rail strike is heading our way – an actual strike as opposed to the ban on rest-day working that’s wreaked havoc in Scotland. And right-wingers south of the border are itching to have a go – especially the right-winger in most need of a bust-up with unions, Boris Johnson.
On Tuesday, a majority of the RMT’s 40,000 voted for strike action at track operator Network Rail and 13 train operating firms – signallers are included in Scotland, so that alone will bring lines to a grinding halt.
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Contingency plans are being drawn up to try to keep trains running after unions warned of “potentially the biggest rail strike in modern history” and “serious challenges” keeping goods moving and supermarket shelves stocked. Yip, whatever the rights and wrongs of the workers’ case, it’s just what we need right now – on top of a new, seriously curtailed rail timetable in Scotland.
But an epic stand-off could be exactly what Boris needs.
Apocalyptic scenes are being predicted, with passenger transport likely to be cancelled completely in some areas and at some times of day so that freight gets priority.
It’s clear that senior Tories are quietly planning a rerun of the 1984 Miner’s Strike. Sure, the RMT’s Mick Lynch is no Arthur Scargill. But he’s no pushover either.
Born to parents from Ireland, Lynch grew up in Paddington, left school at 16 and qualified as an electrician. He later moved to construction and joined a trade union, but found himself illegally blacklisted as a result. In 1993, unable to find building work, he began working for Eurostar, and joined the RMT. Twenty years later, he received a large settlement for the illegal blacklisting and was elected General Secretary in May of last year.
So, who’ll blink first?
Professor Iain Docherty is Dean for the Institute for Advanced Studies at Stirling University and specialises in the role of transport in promoting economic development and environmental sustainability.
He tweeted earlier this week: “One of the great ironies of rail privatisation was that it made the unions extremely powerful. Private operating companies would lose millions every day during a strike. So, rail workers saw some of the strongest pay growth in the economy over the last 20 years.”
So thanks to privatisation, rail workers are the folk most able to take the British Government on.
Of course, they’re also taking the Scottish Government on, by refusing to work on rest days. Until now it seems that arrangement suited everyone. Drivers’ pay was boosted by 17% and Scotrail didn’t need to spend money training new staff. The “work to rule” has caused such havoc that Scotrail have brought in a new controversial, pared down “temporary” timetable – essentially rubbish but reliable.
But this Scottish dispute is likely to be swept away in the much wider, UK-wide strike that beckons. If so, the Scottish Government may heave a sigh of relief.
But not as big a sigh as Johnson.
The Prime Minister will ramp up this dispute with Maggie Thatcher-like belligerence in a desperate bid to get a currently-scunnered English electorate back onside.
It is his last, best chance to shrug off the taint of sleaze, cynicism and downright lying that surrounds him.
Yes, this is what Britain’s politics has come to.
So fasten your belts for a Boris-preserving, economy-destroying, summer of discontent.
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