Council elections will be Judgment Day for Boris Johnson ... and for Nicola Sturgeon

But come Thursday, May 5, the voters will have their rendezvous with democracy. In every London borough, in England’s district, metropolitan and unitary authorities, and in every council in Scotland and Wales, the electorate will be able to mark the cards of the political parties, their leaders and representatives. We might also see a snap election to the Northern Ireland Assembly following the protest resignation of DUP First Minister Paul Givan over the EU Protocol.

Traditionally, the turnout at local elections is… well, pathetic. Normally fewer than half the voters cast a ballot. Amazingly, in the last Scottish local elections, in 2017, turnout jumped by eight points to 47%. But that still meant around 2.3 million adult Scots felt they had too little influence over their local councils to be bothered to vote. The smallest turnout was in Glasgow, Scotland’s largest city, where only 39% of voters – barely one in three – ticked their ballot form.

Nevertheless, come May 5, those who do bother to vote will pass public judgment on Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon, as well as on their sundry local administrations. These local polls will be the last major insight into the mind of the electorate before the next general election. Whatever the politicos say on the morning after these elections, they will be scrutinising them for every scintilla and scrap of information regarding the voting intentions of the public. For Boris and Nicola, May 5 is Judgment Day.

Here in Scotland, the SNP remains well ahead in the polls. The latest Savanta ComRes poll has the SNP on 47%, with Labour on 22, Conservatives on 19 and LibDems on 8. But it is far from clear that this national SNP lead will translate into instant local success come May. In anticipation of the local elections, the party has been firing up supporters with increased talk of a second referendum next year. But this in itself suggests a certain unease in the Nicola camp.

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The SNP runs the two biggest Scottish cities: Glasgow and Edinburgh (the latter in a sotto voce coalition with Labour). But in neither city are the voters happy. Local elections may be a verdict on national politics, but they are also about the things that affect ordinary lives. Beyond a certain pain threshold, voters kick back. And there is every possibility they will do so in Glasgow and Edinburgh in May. That would serve notice in Holyrood that the wheels of the SNP waggon – even if still attached – are starting to wobble a bit.

Take the capital. The endless gridlock and disruption caused by the eternal (it feels) tram works are slowly but surely increasing voter frustrations. At the same time, the council has let central Edinburgh be transformed into a tourist-dominated hellhole. Airbnb businesses have added to the capture of city housing by private landlords, forcing up the price of rented accommodation to exorbitant heights. The new St James shopping mall (built with unnecessary subsidy from the council and Scottish Government) has diverted business away from Princes Street, turning the latter into a shoddy backwater.

Even the normally complacent denizens of the uber-middle-class New Town are restive over increasingly erratic bin collections.

Since its election in 2017, the SNP council group in Edinburgh has been riven with internal dissent, leading to a constant stream of resignations from the party and the administration. The latest resignation is by Alison Dickie, the respected education vice-convenor. Dickie accuses the SNP council leadership of not dealing with a culture of bullying inside the administration and not being proactive on child protection issues. She claims the administration has tried to prevent her bringing to light revelations by staff whistle-blowers regarding council inadequacies.

This internal civil war has clearly distracted the SNP from running Edinburgh with any degree of professionalism. To this has to be added their complete capitulation to the development and construction lobby. Little wonder then that a bevy of senior SNP councillors are bailing out and that rumours abound the party is finding it difficult to recruit new candidates for May. Meanwhile, Labour activists in the capital are demanding openly that their party abandons its minority support for the SNP. This means we could be looking at a hung Edinburgh Council on the morning of May 6.

Over in Glasgow, the minority SNP administration under Susan Aitken (above) is also showing signs of brittleness. Despite the collapse in living standards resulting from energy price hikes and the cut in Universal Credit, Glasgow SNP is intent on raising council tax by 3% (Edinburgh is doing the same).

Of course, all council budgets have been squeezed by Holyrood over the years, itself the result of UK Treasury austerity policies. But the SNP strategy of “managing” a devolved Scotland ultimately involves managing austerity budgets. Glasgow is therefore making cuts. The latest is to drop the council’s £100 payment to the over-80s, to heat their homes. Add to this long-running fights with local working-class communities over library and amenities closures and the SNP hold on Glasgow is tenuous.

Surprisingly, the big winners at the 2017 local elections in Scotland were the Tories. They almost doubled their vote share and put on 164 councillors. But post partygate, the likelihood is they will lose ground. Last time losers were Scottish Labour, who dropped 133 councillors in 2017. Labour could grab back seats in the big urban areas – which would spell trouble for the SNP, especially in Glasgow.

What of the Greens and Alba (of which I am a member)? The Greens are polling well and could benefit from the transfer vote system. Alba has around 16 sitting councillors thanks to defections from the SNP. It will need transfer votes from SNP supporters to make inroads in the wards. If the SNP grip on Scotland’s councils does weaken on May 5, these minority nationalist parties could have a bigger influence on council decisions. For Alba that means opposing any council tax rises.

What does all this mean for Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson?

I suspect the Tories have already discounted the May local elections. The moment may have passed for dumping Boris, who shows every sign of digging in. Besides, a war in Ukraine would blow partygate off the front pages. Boris Johnson may be the luckiest politician in the last half-century.

As for Nicola, SNP losses at the coming local elections will be a warning but not yet a disaster. She has paid scant regard to local government as any priority. Plans to reform local financing are in deep storage – if they exist at all. And Holyrood has long since returned to the time-honoured tradition of telling local councils what to do. Which is a great pity. For local politics is where real decisions are made affecting people’s lives.