WHAT is the state of Scottish politics at this point during COP26? Even her biggest critics will have to accept that Nicola Sturgeon used the international gathering to great effect. Downing Street was determined from the start to push the First Minister and the SNP government to the margins of the event. Instead, the FM artfully grabbed international headlines and scooped every significant photo opportunity.

Above all – beyond the media victory – Sturgeon succeeded in positioning her administration exactly where she wanted it politically. In other words, seen by America and Europe as a potential close western ally, should Scotland achieve independence from the hapless Tory regime down south.

In all this, the FM was aided by the cackhanded Boris Johnson government. Who could have predicted – slap in the middle of COP26 – that Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg would commit political self-immolation? First by forcing Tory MPs to vote down disciplinary action against Owen Paterson, after the Commons Standards Committee found him guilty of taking cash for lobbying ministers. Then by reversing that decision in a shuddering, humiliating U-turn, the day after.

The result has been to underscore yet again Johnson’s serial incompetence and tin ear.

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It has also pinned on his administration the label of sleaze. And not just because of the failure of the PM (salary £161,401) to declare a free holiday in Marbella, or the fuss over a Tory donor forking out for redecorating his and Carrie’s Downing Street flat. The true dark heart of Tory sleaze lies in the £10 billion of contracts that were awarded without competition during the early part of the pandemic. This was helped along by a fast-track channel that (according to the National Audit Office) allowed 500 suppliers with direct personal links to Tory politicians or advisers to pitch directly for this work.

A combination of Nicola Sturgeon’s political adroitness and Boris Johnson’s Old Etonian arrogance has given the SNP government a COP26 victory.

At first sight, the FM’s strategy of patient diplomacy – waiting for the Tories to make mistakes – seems to be working. Her constant media trope during the climate summit, that there would be a second independence referendum in 2023, suddenly looks at least plausible.

Or is it? The political skids are certainly under Boris Johnson but is that a reason to think he will be any more amenable to granting a Section 30 order for indyref2? Westminster has been rife with rumours that Johnson is planning a General Election in 2023. An early election would certainly help divert attention away from his weakened leadership.

But it would kick a second independence referendum into touch. Unless, of course, the FM declared that an SNP majority gained at a UK General Election was in itself a mandate for independence negotiations. This is the infamous Plan B strategy long advocated by islands MP Angus Brendan MacNeil.

On her current, cautious form Nicola Sturgeon is unlikely to embrace any such Plan B. If so, this could gift the political initiative to the Tories. They are going to use the next 18 months love bombing Scotland with Treasury cash. Forget the Treasury’s stupid diversion of funding for carbon capture to the north of England, where there is precious little carbon or available storage.

All that boondoggle proves is that Chancellor Rishi Sunak is prepared to bribe northern Tory MPs to support his bid to oust Boris. If he can do that then he can bribe Scottish voters too.

As a strategy, this won’t put silly Douglas Ross into power – ever. But a combination of Tory cash and political noise – allied to the inevitable voter ennui resulting from having the SNP in power at Holyrood for two whole decades – could cause a fall in SNP support at any prospective 2023 UK election. And Boris will take even a tiny drop in the SNP vote share as the justification to ignore future calls, either for independence negotiations or indyref2.

OTHER scenarios are possible. Nicola is long suspected of harbouring an ambition to escape the daily grind of Scottish politics. She may use her new COP26 fame to seek a global platform.

In which case, a lot of bets are off. There are no SNP frontbenchers with Sturgeon’s popularity or recognition. The succession race could open up hitherto invisible divisions in the party, especially over any Plan B. If Joanna Cherry, say, stood for the vacated leadership on a more robust platform, the SNP would be polarised. The pseudo-liberal, identarian wing of the party is not renowned for its ability to work with Cherry or her co-thinkers.

Meanwhile, outside of the SNP, new forces are at work. The run-up to COP26 saw the revival of trades union militancy in Scotland in the face of a decade of falling real wages and despite appeals from the SNP not to “embarrass” Scotland during the summit. True, the number of workers involved is small.

But the ultimate success of RMT rail staff in their dispute with ScotRail, and the refusal of Glasgow bin workers to back down in their clash with the SNP-controlled Glasgow City Council, shows trades unionists will no longer buy the argument that the Scottish Government is fundamentally on their side, so they should be grateful for a slightly better deal than is available to their colleagues in England.

Expect union militancy to intensify as inflation (now at 5%) continues to grow, taxes rise and living standards plummet. Result: the SNP government will find itself in a dilemma. The latest UK Budget offered Scotland some extra cash. But much of this is front-loaded to make Chancellor Sunak look good. As we move further into the budget cycle – especially with inflation eating up real resources – Holyrood will find itself seriously cash strapped.

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As it is, the Chancellor only found extra cash by (yet again) clobbering local authorities. Under the Barnett formula, this will leave Holyrood short when it comes to funding public sector pay settlements. The Glasgow bin workers are only the start. A confrontation with the trade unions could spell disaster for the popularity of the SNP government. Some SNP loyalists will blame the unions for being London’s stooges.

But remember that the core Yes vote lies precisely in working-class communities, especially in big urban conurbations such as Glasgow and Dundee. The RMT rail union actually called for a Yes vote in 2014. Better then for any radical SNP administration worth its salt to side with the unions and pay higher wages, even if this means challenging UK Treasury spending rules. After all, if Nicola really believes there will be an indyref2 in 2023, why kowtow to the Chancellor?

An SNP government alliance with the unions – granting inflation-busting wage settlements of 5%-plus, with more for those on low pay – could prove the vital political lever that mobilises popular support for independence. In fact, to genuinely defend living standards in Scotland, wage settlements will have to be running at 10% per plus annum, which is where the SNP government should be pitching public sector agreements.

Such a strategy would challenge the risk-averse approach of the FM. Yet being risk-averse surely sits uneasily with building a new nation.