IN September 2000, things seemed set fair for Blair. More than three years into his premiership, he enjoyed a comfortable opinion poll lead. The opposition Tories were regarded as ineffectual and their leader, William Hague, generally derided as not up to the job.
Then lightning struck. A wildcat fuel price protest, initiated by a group of independent transport companies called Transaction, blockaded supplies of petrol and diesel coming from refineries and very quickly the forecourts started to run dry. Government Ministers told everyone not to panic and so the people did the entirely rational thing and promptly did exactly that.
In barely a week of protests, three quarters of filling stations were closed, supermarket shelves began to empty and essential services started to buckle. The lack of resilience of the UK transport infrastructure was cruelly exposed as was the basic incompetence of the Blair government. They were shown to be asleep at the wheel.
The impact on the opinion polls was dramatic. The MORI survey of September 12 showed a 15% Labour lead. Ten days later, the same poll recorded the Tories in front by four points. Only the onset of a war has this sort of dramatic impact.
Twenty-one years on the parallels are uncanny.
Despite its manifest failings, Boris Johnson’s government approaches mid-term in robust polling condition. Almost oblivious to glaring opportunities, Keir Starmer’s Labour opposition seem incapable of getting their act together.
This week’s Brighton conference is a case in point. With open goals beckoning, Starmer’s Labour kick the ball determinedly towards their own net. Internal constitutional wrangles, off-piste comments and a shadow Cabinet resignation have dominated the coverage thus far. Starmer gives every appearance of scurrying round his own conference from one crisis meeting to another looking permanently uncomfortable.
On his turbulent deputy, he should now back her or sack her. My own take is that there is nothing in Angela Rayner’s (above) late night remarks which right now would not be echoed in every garage forecourt in the country, and therefore Starmer should get his knickers untwisted.
Meanwhile, outside the hall, carers and nurses are queuing to get petrol to get to their essential, life and death work.
Back in 2000 the protests fizzled out and normality was restored. One month later, the Labour MORI opinion poll lead was back to 13% and Blair cruised to re-election in 2001 – and into Baghdad but two years later. Indeed the prime minister delivered a heartfelt apology for the fuel chaos, something he omitted to do for the illegal war.
This time round the problems are much more enduring. The critical driver shortage is Brexit-inspired and incapable of easy or quick resolution. The Government response to date looks pathetic, weak and ineffectual. To use an old Tory phrase, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps (below) is not someone with whom you would choose to go into the jungle. Those who tell people to remain calm in a crisis usually don’t realise the full extent of the problems!
Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat – but there must be a fair amount of doubt as to whether enough of them will find their way onto the supermarket shelves. It will take more than mumbling from bumbling Boris and his cheerleaders in the mainstream media to explain away the monumental incompetence which exposes the strategic infrastructure of the country as stuck in a “just in time” knife edge.
But still the likely outcome will reflect that of 21 years ago. The Tories will emerge damaged from the chaos and their opinion poll lead will evaporate as quickly as the remaining fumes in a queuing motorist’s petrol tank.
However, without a credible opposition narrative, when the immediate crisis passes memories and frustration will fade. The most incompetent, useless, inept Westminster government in history will likely recover its polling position, courtesy of the most incompetent, useless and inept Westminster opposition.
And yet for Scotland, is there not a clear lesson in all of this?
The parties of Scottish independence have two strategic aims. One is to demonstrate how bad the Westminster government is and the other how much better we could run things in Scotland.
On this issue it would help enormously if some in our own government were not now somehow ashamed of being an energy powerhouse with six times the oil and gas we consume and renewable electricity coming out of our ears. Properly managed, that can deliver all of the clean and green energy options that any country could ever require and do it in an effective and resilient manner, welcoming people to live and work in our country, offering their skills to the betterment of their families and the nation.
In contrast, Boris’s crew of bandits and Brexiteers could not run a tap. They are a bunch of political marshmallows who will melt at the first sign of real pressure.
What would their response be to a determined, engaged and sustained political challenge from Scotland?
That is, of course, if only one were forthcoming.
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