WHEN I address this issue I have two clear objectives in mind. My first objective is to get Scottish independence, and my second objective – partly because it is important to my first – is to get an SNP government returned with a majority. So my thoughts on voting strategy in the May election are determined by these objectives.

Now, “both votes SNP” is an easy slogan, but it is no more than that. It is not a thought-out strategy. I want to approach this issue not in the combative style in which much of the debate has been taking place, but in a fraternal helpful and rational way with other Yes supporters, whose objectives are not much different from mine.

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I begin by asking myself a fundamental question: how can the SNP most likely increase its number of seats in the new Scottish Parliament? Well, I start by looking at the SNP’s record and history in this regard. This shows that the SNP’s strongest asset in the past, which looks likely to still be true, is to capture constituency seats all over Scotland, urban or rural, Highland or Lowland, prosperous or poor areas. No other party in the history of the Scottish Parliament has been able to do that. Labour, the Tories and the LibDems have had their strong areas, but none of them have ever been able to appeal to voters in all areas, right across Scotland. This is a unique and powerful strength the SNP has.

If you doubt that, look at the history. At the first election of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, the SNP managed to get only seven constituency seats out of a total of 73 seats. All the Unionist parties, as individual parties, got more than the SNP; even the LibDems got 11 seats. At that stage in their development the list vote was very important for the SNP and “both votes SNP” would have made sense for the party.

However, the SNP has developed in every part of Scotland, so that a first-past-the-post type of ballot is favourable to the SNP, particularly if the three Unionist parties stand against each other.

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Today the SNP holds 61 seats, four short of an overall majority. Two of the four seats they need were won by the SNP at the last election but the sitting member is no longer SNP, so it is likely the SNP will get them back this time. So only two needed for an overall majority. Where are they most likely to come from?

Well, currently in addition to the two seats the SNP should win back there are four Unionist MSPs with less than 1,000 of a majority and six unionist MSPs with less than 2,000 of a majority, so that means there are 12 constituency seats well within range of the SNP.

Now, if a huge chunk of the Yes movement vote for the SNP in the constituency list, in the current situation the SNP should have no difficulty getting an overall majority from the constituency list alone. They will not get all the Yes votes, because the Greens will foolishly put up candidates in the constituency section, take away votes from the SNP and possibly let in a Unionist for no possible gain to themselves. However, most Yes supporters will follow Action for Independence’s approach of “SNP 1 AFI 2” in the ballot.

If the Yes movement votes wisely, as most of them will, the SNP should pick up more than four additional constituency seats, and they will need to, because their very success in the constituency vote, if it helps them in Highland or South Scotland, will cost them seats on the regional list in those areas. Why? Well that is how the system works. Now in my area West of Scotland this will not happen because the SNP have no seats to lose. Although thousands of people voted for them on that list they got no seats, so they have none to lose, and this is so for most of Scotland. So now Yes voters voting SNP and helping them win seats against the Tories in South Scotland could be helping the Tories to get one or more of the SNP list seats if they give both votes to the SNP. Does that seem wise to you?

No, it makes no sense to me either. So to achieve my objective I will vote SNP with my constituency vote and try to ensure that the SNP stays on the trajectory they have maintained since the Scottish Parliament was established. I am confident that if all Yes supporters do this (after all we are now the majority of Scots) then we will succeed and the SNP will have an overall majority. If we then use our thousands of votes in the regional section to support AFI and other independence-supporting parties, we will stop the Unionists from picking up virtually all these seats and increase the independence majority in the Scottish Parliament. Is that not an objective worth thinking about if you really want an independent Scotland?

Andy Anderson
Saltcoats