There’s no such thing as a ‘managed no deal Brexit’

If ever there was a phrase that meant less than the sum of its parts, then this is it. Rather like “better together”, “Brexit means Brexit” or “strong and stable”, but just as insane and even more ridiculous.

The fact that it is being uttered, apparently in all sobriety, with a straight face and a steady hand by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Hunt and Iain Duncan Smith just adds to the farcical nature of this condensed antithesis. It is a catchy oxymoron created in a last-gasp attempt to spin our thoughts away from the disaster and chaos that awaits us if we crash out of the EU without a deal. In reality it would all be bitter with no sweet.

Like all the phrases trotted out by the Brexiteers in the past two and a half years since that fateful EU referendum, it’s just a smokescreen, a massive bluff, a fantasy inside a unicorn, wrapped up in a Union flag. All this phrase needs now is a nice big fat endorsement from Liam Fox, Minister for No-Trade-Deals, and then it will truly have the full authority of the deluded and friendless.

It was Penny Mordaunt that took the plunge and revealed on Monday her plan for a “managed no deal”. She even used the term “glidepath”, whatever that means, closely followed by an eager looking Jeremy Hunt who claimed the UK would “flourish and prosper” if it walked away from the EU without a deal.

The jostling for future leadership position between Mordaunt and Hunt is a rather unedifying spectacle, but we must not let it detract from the nonsensical nature of a no deal being managed when the EU has specifically said that no more negotiation can take place.

There is no Plan B that can be negotiated and agreed on. There is no glidepath that doesn’t end in one almighty crash. The EU has accepted Theresa May’s dismal version as the endgame of negotiation and the door is closed. But no matter how loudly and how often they say that, the Brexiteers just can’t seem to hear the facts from Brussels and keep pushing for further options just like an obnoxious adolescent who won’t take no for an answer.

In truth, no amount of “management” will make a no deal a good thing for the UK. The first worrying sign of this was the government appointing a minister for food shortages some months back, the first time such a post has been filled since the Second World War.

The Brexiteers don’t have a good track record on managing anything very much at all really. They certainly haven’t managed to come up with an exit strategy that bears any resemblance to reality, factual analysis and the good of the country. As far as they are concerned, who needs a plan, who needs a deal? Surely the national interest is worth sacrificing as long as our passports are blue, and that annoying Juncker chap can’t call us “nebulous” any more.

It’s all about perspective of course, which as far as I can see is rather warped if you support a no deal. One such supporter is The Sun newspaper, which has been reporting on the EU announcing crisis proposals to keep planes in the air and goods flowing across the Channel until at least 2020 in the event of a no deal.

This newspaper has decreed that this is a good example of the Eurocrats blinking first and a victory for the Brexiteers. Not that these avid Leavers actually seem that concerned about falling off a cliff, owing to their ermine clad parachutes that will float them away on their cloud of wealth, cushioned from a bumpy landing and the distressing sight of the proletariat falling to their doom.

In the same article, The Sun continues to espouse that countries like France, Ireland and the Netherlands are moving heaven and earth to protect the UK in this time period, planning emergency measures to minimise disruption.

It would seem that the very countries the Brexiteers wish to escape from, the very union they so desperately wish to leave, will need to help the UK to manage its departure by overcompensating for all the areas these Leavers have failed to prepare for in the event of our exit. It sounds to me like the Brexiteers need the EU a lot more than the EU needs the UK.

By the time you read this of course, the EU will have actually published its contingency plans for a no deal and you’ll be able to judge for yourself who has blinked first. This publication will likely show that, rather than protecting the UK from the chaos of a no deal, the EU will be acting to protect the interests of the remaining 27 members of the Uunion from the disruption caused if Britain crashes out.

These transitory measures will be just that, and they will end according to the EU’s timetable, not the UK’s. Quite a different perspective from the take of The Sun and the Brexiteers.

But don’t just take the EU’s word for it. The Institute for Government, a leading think tank that works to make the government more effective (they’ve certainly got their work cut out), points out that the UK Government has a long “to do” list if they’re planning on managing a no deal, much of which is worryingly still in the pencil-on-paper stage rather than anywhere near implementation.

The institute highlights that leaving the EU without a deal would change everything overnight, and it would be nigh impossible to manage away all the major disruption that would follow.

It suggests that those advocating such a plan need to be more honest about the implications. Well good luck with that.

I think the best reaction to the idea of a “managed no deal” has come from the principal of the University of Glasgow and economist Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, who likened it to calling for an “orderly apocalypse”. Now that’s a far more truthful and insightful, if somewhat scary, phrase. Something tells me, it’s not one that the Brexiteers will want to adopt any time soon.