NICOLA Sturgeon is right to wait till the Brexit arrangements are clear before naming the date for – sorry, making a decision on – a new independence referendum.

We simply won’t know how Brexit will impact on independence arguments until full Brexit leaving arrangements are set in stone. That will provide answers on borders, the best transition arrangements on currency and what Brexit means for jobs and exports, and then we will see Westminster breaking the Leave campaign’s promises to the farming and fishing communities. Now may not be the time (no-one ever said it was), but late 2018 could be the time to name a date, and 2019 will be the time for Scotland to vote to become a nation again.

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Don’t get me wrong, the new indyref will not be about Brexit or promising to stay in the EU – we may have to join Efta to maintain membership of the single market after independence. It will be about the fact Brexit exposes the myth that Westminster acts in Scotland’s best interests. We will be able to compare the UK Government’s delusional incompetence on Brexit to the Scottish Government’s competence and the almost unified parliamentary voice standing up for Scotland.

Even the most conservative traditionalist who voted against independence because they were sure Westminster tradition and history meant security and good governance will have to accept, when the Brexit deal is announced, that Westminster is deliberately damaging Scotland’s economy and acting against our democratically stated wishes.

What many in the media haven’t yet figured out is the reason the Sustainable Growth Commission (SGC) report was delayed: because it commits the Scottish Government to a referendum in the near future. The SNP can’t publish a renewed case for independence, tour the country with it and then say “no, let’s leave it another generation”. Brexit changes the constitution of the UK and in 2014 Scotland voted for no change, so now it comes with all options and that alters everything.

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If there is no referendum before the next Holyrood elections, that becomes the referendum. If Holyrood votes for a referendum and Theresa May says no and goes to the Supreme Court to prove she has the right to refuse a Holyrood majority decision, when a precedent has already been set, the next Holyrood election becomes a referendum on having a referendum.

Some people are worried about a new snap General Election, but you would almost hope Theresa May would go to court to both strip powers from the Scottish Parliament and stop Scotland holding a referendum that the SNP have a double mandate for, and then call a General Election. We have hit peak Tory in Scotland, and there is no way that so many Labour supporters would tactically vote Tory in marginal seats again in such numbers, having thrown away a chance of a Labour government last time.

The SGC report will strengthen the case for independence, but also weaken the Conservative mantra of “No to a second referendum”.

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I don’t expect it to be that radical. I would love to see included some of the more ambitious targets and policies that Business for Scotland suggested: a Scottish currency, a National Investment Bank and a new way to measure economic growth. What really matters though is that we push the Scottish Government to use the SGC report as a launching pad for a more radical approach to generating an enhanced shared prosperity with the powers of independence.

Either way the independence movement needs to hit the streets and spread the message that the economic case is being more thoroughly prepared than before, just as the myth of Westminster economic competency implodes. That will begin to move the needle, and if we get above 50% then the First Minister will name a date sooner rather than later.

That is why BfS has this week launched a new Independence Ambassador Training Programme to a gathering of 50 of the Yes movement’s most active group leaders. We have committed to training 1000 grassroots activists in the new messages, skills and techniques required to win people over to supporting Scottish nationhood. That’s just the start.

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Many people think that Brexit won’t move the polls until people feel it hitting their pockets, but that will happen as soon as the Leave arrangements are agreed in October. The pound became volatile and sank 15% following the Brexit vote, but while it has steadied a little since, markets have valued it in anticipation of a post-Brexit free trade deal that avoids tariffs and hard borders.

Despite compromising on each of the Prime Minister’s famous red lines, there are still huge unsolved issues, such as the Irish border and the cost of a trade deal if one is eventually negotiated. A poorer than promised outcome would mean the pound could drop another 15% and, added to potential tariffs on stock imports such as coffee, tea, chocolate, rice, clothes and electronics, the cost of living is set to soar and push tens of thousands of families into poverty – and they will see that coming.

On top of this, Scotland’s farmers rely on EU CAP payments to subsidise UK food production and there is no guarantee that the UK will be able to afford to continue those payments post-Brexit, so even home-grown food could shoot up in price.

Brexit has already slowed investment and growth in the UK economy. According to the ONS, the UK was the only major economy in the world where economic growth actually slowed in 2017.

Westminster is driving the UK economy into a perfect storm of low growth, tariffs on imports, barriers to exports and inflation, all as a deliberate result of a UK Government policy that Scotland did not vote for, and the SGC will set out a positive alternative that we can build upon. Bring it on.