THERESA May’s planned Cabinet meeting for yesterday morning was cancelled at the last minute as her government lurched from crisis to crisis.
It was difficult to work out what was the Tory leader’s biggest headache, with bungling Boris Johnson accidentally managing to increase the prison sentence of a British woman currently held as a political prisoner in an Iranian jail, or Priti Patel promising British aid money to the Israeli Defence Force.
Maybe it’s Damian Green being probed over possible “extreme” but legal pornography on his office computer, or Brexit Trade Minister Mark Garnier asking his secretary to buy him sex toys.
Perhaps it’s Michael Fallon and his inappropriate approaches to female journalists and colleagues.
Then there’s Brexit. After the Government effectively lost the debate over whether or not to release the 58 key sector impact assessments, David Davis is now dramatically clarifying, telling MPs the papers aren’t quite what people think.
Reports from Brussels suggest the Government’s hopes of starting talks over a trade deal before Christmas is now increasingly unlikely.
The Government is in chaos, with May seemingly unable to control her most senior ministers.
Will the Government fall? Will we have another snap General Election?
Probably not.
The Fixed Term Act could mean another five years of this chaos.
Richard Parry, from the University of Edinburgh’s school of politics, and a fellow of the Centre on Constitutional Change, says it’s worth remembering that even John Major managed to hang on for his full term.
His government “sort of struggled but it had no interest in having an early election because it was going to lose,” Parry says. “I think Theresa May is in a similar situation.”
“Even though you think it looks really weak, her entire interest is to hang on. Though they are very unstable, in a way they’re quite stable” the academic adds.
The crunch, he says, will likely come next year when more detail emerges about Brexit, and whether or not the Tories can hold together.
If the deal agreed isn’t too “open-ended” with the UK effectively becoming a non-voting members of the EU, then maybe they’ll manage to hold on.
Scot Goes Pop Blogger, and poll analyst James Kelly agrees, but suggests if May is replaced, her successor might be tempted to go to the country.
“The way a snap election is most likely to occur is if a new Tory leader comes in, enjoys some sort of honeymoon period in the polls, and decides to strike while the iron is hot.
“There’s a theory that no prime minister is ever likely to risk an unnecessary election again after what happened to Theresa May in June, but it may be that conducting Brexit negotiations without a parliamentary majority and with no personal mandate could seem too daunting for a new PM, and an early election might just about look worth the risk.
“Much less likely is that the Government will be literally forced from office due to by-election defeats. At worst, Tory MPs caught up in scandals will have the whip withdrawn – for obvious reasons there’ll be no pressure on them from the party leadership to resign their seats.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel