HUGE swings to the SNP across the country could see Scottish Labour being wiped out in May’s General Election, with Jim Murphy being one of the party’s only MPs elected to Westminster from north of the Border.
The new polling data by Lord Ashcroft suggests the SNP could win more than 50 seats.
The poll looked at eight Scottish constituencies, including those held by Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and two other safe Labour seats. The poll also suggested the SNP would take the seat of former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy.
Startlingly for Murphy, despite his new higher profile the poll suggests he will hang on to his seat by a margin of only one per cent.
The polling of eight constituencies included five Labour seats, two LibDem seats and the only Conservative seat in Scotland. It found all five Labour seats showing a swing to the SNP, with only Murphy in East Renfrewshire holding on.
If the polling in Lord Ashcroft’s polls holds up Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock held by Sandra Osborne, Dumfries and Galloway held by Russell Brown, Edinburgh South West held by Alistair Darling, and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath currently held by Gordon Brown, would swing to the SNP.
The poll also predicts it will be a dead heat between the SNP and the Conservatives in David Mundell’s Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat.
The LibDem seats of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, currently held by Sir Robert Smith; and Ross, Skye and Lochaber, currently held by Charles Kennedy would also both swing to the SNP.
The SNP cautiously welcomed the poll findings. Angus Robertson MP, the SNP’s General Election co-ordinator, said: “These polls are very encouraging, but we aren’t taking a single seat or vote for granted in May.
“The most significant aspect of the findings is it confirms that the SNP’s surge in support is reflected every bit as much in areas of Scotland which voted No as well as Yes in the referendum.
“We are working hard to demonstrate how voting SNP in May will give all the people of Scotland real power at Westminster – and these polls show that this is a strong and attractive message across the country.
“SNP MPs are there to stand up for Scotland, so we’ll make sure those things that most matter to the people of Scotland – jobs, the NHS, education and pensions – are not forgotten in Westminster.
“Only by voting SNP can people make Scotland’s priorities the priorities at Westminster. More SNP seats means the more Westminster will listen to the people of Scotland.”
“People want to empower Scotland, and they want to vote positively for a party 100 per cent focused on Scottish interests and see the SNP as the only party which stands for that.”
Jim Murphy commented: “There is no gloss that can be put on these polls. This is bad news for Scottish Labour, but great news for the Tories.”
The New Statesman’s May2015.com website’s electoral calculator suggested that polling data could see the SNP take 56 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies.
Ashcroft, a Tory peer who has been bankrolling weekly polling and constituency polling throughout the UK for the last two years, also claimed that a 22 per cent swing to the SNP could result in a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour in the UK.
Ashcroft’s poll also included the results of a survey of 8,000 people taken throughout the UK.
According to this data, Labour and the Conservatives are heading for a dead heat of 272 seats each.
Lord Ashcroft said: “As things stand, Labour losses in Scotland could offset their gains from the Tories, leading to something close to a dead heat. Labour have fallen from their peak above 40 per cent to the low 30s, from which the Conservatives have been unable to break free since the middle of 2012.
“The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain well below half their 2010 vote share, and Ukip have fallen back slightly from their peak at the end of last year.”
The poll also suggested 40 per cent were not feeling the effects of the Coalition’s economic recovery, and 58 per cent do not want any more austerity, compared to 42 per cent who say we need more.
Although a Tory peer, Ashcroft’s polls are mostly respected across the political spectrum and seen as fair, with only a couple of dissenting voices. Last month, in a series of polls of Labour seats with strong Yes votes, his polls predicted huge swings to the SNP, with the party taking 15 of the 16 constituencies polled.
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