JUNIOR Brexit Minister Kwasi Kwarteng was in the Commons yesterday, trying to hold the government’s line on Brexit. He lasted about half an hour.
Initially, Kwarteng dodged questions over when the third meaningful vote, or MV3 as it’s being dubbed, might take place. After repeated questioning from Tory and opposition MPs, he finally admitted it will probably be next week.
“I’m not going to say the exact hour and time of when the meaningful vote will take place,” he said.
In fairness to Kwarteng that’s because he probably doesn’t know. And if a minister in the Brexit department doesn’t know what’s going to happen next on this great Brexit journey we’re all on together then what hope do the rest of us have?
The coming week is set to be one of the most important weeks in Brexit since ... well ... the one just ending.
We could conceivably see the end of MV3, the end of Theresa May and maybe even the beginning of the end for Brexit. Or we could see May’s deal pass. Or we could see a hard Brexit. Or we could even see a new referendum confirmed.
MV3
It looks like meaningful vote three, might take place on Tuesday or Wednesday. However – and this is an important thing to remember – it might not.
Last week Speaker John Bercow, above, said the government couldn’t bring Theresa May’s deal back to the Commons unless it was fundamentally different from the deal that MPs have already twice rejected massively. The deal remains unchanged.
However, there is, it seems, a new interpretation of Bercow’s ruling doing the rounds, that what he was really saying was that the Prime Minister can’t just keep asking MPs to vote on the same thing again and again and again – no MV4 or MV5 or MV6. But MV3 is OK.
It is worth noting here that May needs 75 MPs who voted no on her deal last time to switch sides if she wants to get it through.
That seems unlikely. The DUP’s Brexit spokesman, Nigel Dodds, was explicit yesterday, that he and his fellow Ulster Unionists would not back the deal. And May’s extraordinary statement on Wednesday night when she blamed MPs for mucking everything up hasn’t endeared her to many in SW1.
INDICATIVE VOTES
There has been one other big change – the EU has agreed to extend the Brexit negotiation process beyond March 29. They will delay our departure until May 22 if the Prime Minister’s deal passes. But if it doesn’t, the UK only has us until April 12 to “indicate a way forward”.
That April deadline is important as it’s the last possible moment for the UK to decide whether or not to take part in elections to the European Parliament. If we want a long extension, then we need to have MEPs.
In the Commons yesterday, Kwarteng was asked, if the government would allow “indicative votes”, to allow Parliament to vote on all the possible outcomes and see if there’s a majority.
Initially, as is his wont, Kwarteng ignored the question. But those pesky MPs kept asking and he eventually snapped.
“I think that if the meaningful vote is voted down then it would be reasonable to have a wide debate in the House to find what the House would tolerate and how it sees things going forward,” he said.
And, with a cross-party group of MPs including Labour’s Yvette Cooper, the Tories’ Oliver Letwin and the SNP’s Stewart Hosie looking for a vote on allowing indicative votes on Monday night, the government might not have a choice.
So, if May’s deal is defeated, that could mean MPs voting on revoking Article 50, a second referendum, a hard-Brexit, a Norway-plus type deal, or even a snap election.
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN EUROPE?
They’re really just waiting on us to sort our own mess. “The fate of Brexit is in the hands of our British friends,” Donald Tusk said yesterday. “As the EU, we are prepared for the worst, but hope for the best. As you know, hope dies last.”
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