AMERICANS are heading to the polls in a crucial set of midterm elections which could dramatically alter the balance of power in Washington.
With Donald Trump’s approval ratings continuing to struggle and economic pressures showing little sign of easing, Democrats enter election day with high hopes of a historic victory that could see them seize control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But while the polls suggest Democrats could be in for a historic night, recent American elections have demonstrated that even the most respected pollsters can get things wrong.
So what are the polls saying, what does early voting tell us, and can we trust the predictions this time?
What are the polls predicting?
The final round of polling from The New York Times makes for encouraging reading from a Democratic perspective.
The surveys suggest Democrats have made significant gains in several key states traditionally considered Republican strongholds.
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Conducted between October 23 and November 1 across seven key states, the polling found that just 38% of likely voters approved of Trump’s performance as president.
That is particularly worrying for Republicans, given that Trump has repeatedly urged voters to act as though his name is on the ballot.
Trump won five of those states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is polling at 53%, compared with 42% for his Republican opponent Mike Rogers. This is despite the incumbent Democrat Hayley Stevens endorsing Rogers over her Democratic Party colleague El-Sayed.
Meanwhile, former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is leading Republican Jon Husted by 49% to 44% in Ohio.
The race in Maine also appears competitive, with Democrat Troy Jackson polling at 51% against incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins on 45%.
Perhaps more surprisingly, Democrats have also made gains in Kansas and Texas, states which have not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 and 1988 respectively.
In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton is polling at 49%, compared with 44% for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.
In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico could be in for a historic night as he is polling at 49.4% compared to 46.1% for Republican Ken Paxton.
The contest in Iowa is considerably closer, with Democrat Josh Turek on 48% and Republican Ashley Hinson on 47%, a race The New York Times described as effectively tied.
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For Democrats to regain control of the Senate, they need to gain at least four seats while defending those they already hold.
The picture in the House of Representatives is also encouraging for the party, with polling suggesting Democratic candidates are ahead in more than the 218 seats needed to secure a majority.
What is early voting and what does it show?
Unlike in the UK, where most people vote on election day itself, a majority of American voters now cast their ballots in advance.
The growing popularity of early voting means that elections in the US increasingly take place over several weeks rather than on a single day.
And this year, early voting figures suggest Americans are turning out in particularly large numbers.
According to an analysis by The New York Times, early turnout has been broadly higher than during the 2022 midterm elections across key Senate battleground states.
Why can early voting figures be misleading?
While early voting can offer clues about turnout, it is far less useful when it comes to predicting the result.
For one thing, the figures tell us who has voted, but not necessarily who they have voted for.
Some states publish information about voters’ party registration, age or race, while others release very little demographic data.
And even where party registration figures are available, being registered as a Democrat or Republican does not guarantee that someone has voted for that party’s candidate.
There are also significant differences in how Americans choose to vote.
Republicans have traditionally been more likely to vote on election day itself, while Democrats have tended to favour early voting. This can make the initial results appear more favourable to Democrats than the final outcome.
It is something worth bearing in mind as the results come in. Early returns may suggest an unstoppable "blue wave", only for later results from election-day voting to “save” Republicans.
The first results from the US midterm elections are expected from around 11pm UK time on Tuesday.
But haven't the polls been wrong before?
American pollsters have famously struggled to accurately capture support for Trump in recent presidential elections.
In 2016, Trump shocked pollsters by defeating Hillary Clinton, and he went on to surpass expectations again in 2024 when he defeated Kamala Harris. His defeat to Joe Biden in 2020 was also considerably narrower than many experts had predicted.
One reason for this is that conservative voters, particularly those on the right, can be sceptical of what they view as the establishment and are therefore sometimes reluctant to participate in surveys.
The difficulty in reaching these voters can mean they are underrepresented in polling, only to turn out in large numbers on election day.
However, there is reason to believe this year’s election could be more accurately predicted.
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Pollsters have sought to improve their methods in recent years, including by adjusting how they weight responses to better account for Republican voters.
In addition, midterm polling has historically proved more reliable than presidential election polling, with one factor being that Trump himself is not on the ballot.
Even so, the Senate race could come down to very fine margins. A polling lead of just a few percentage points can easily fall within the margin of error, leaving some of the most consequential contests difficult to call.
What happens next?
With the latest polling making for encouraging reading for Democrats, the party has reason to be optimistic about its chances of taking control of the House of Representatives.
The Senate, however, could prove a much closer contest, with a handful of tightly fought races potentially determining which party controls the chamber – making these much harder to predict.
What is clear is that Republicans face a difficult battle to retain control of Congress, with Democrats making inroads in states Trump won comfortably just two years ago.
The question then is not whether the Democrats will make gains, but if those gains will be enough to deliver a historic power shift in Washington.
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