THE heart of Scotland's capital is on a knife edge ahead of May 7, with three parties battling it out to win the crucial seat.
Angus Robertson, the SNP's culture secretary is heading into the election as both the incumbent, and according to our polling , the favourite, but hot on his heels is former Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater.
Scottish Labour's James Dalgleish is also within touching distance, partly aided by major boundary changes that place some of the Ian Murray heartlands within the sprawling constituency.
READ MORE: Unionists must not be allowed to dictate the narrative of this election
The seat itself is divided, with some of Scotland's most affluent streets just blocks away from some of its most deprived urban areas. The new boundaries change its makeup even more, bringing in areas like Bruntsfield, Morningside, Gorgie and parts of Grange while losing much of the former northwest of the seat around Roseburn and Murrayfield.
A huge student population and thousands of new international voters coming in and out of the city each year mean any polling figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Who are the candidates?
- SNP: Angus Robertson
- Scottish Greens : Lorna Slater
- Scottish Labour: James Dalgleish
- LibDems: Charles Dundas
- Reform UK: Gary Neill
- Conservatives: Jo Mowat
- Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Craig Murray
- Scottish Libertarian Party: Tam Laird
- Independent: Bonnie Prince Bob
- Independent: Chris Creighton
- Independent: Robert Pownall
It's all to play for – again
Despite retaining its original name, Edinburgh Central has seen many changes, both in scope and favoured party.
The seat was once a Labour stronghold, with Sarah Boyack holding the seat for more than a decade between devolution in 1999 and the 2011 Holyrood election.
Since then, with a boundary change coming into effect that knocked the LibDems from their place in opposition, the seat has switched to the SNP, to Ruth Davidson standing for the Tories, then back to the SNP.
Throughout its history no candidate has secured more than 40% of the vote, a trend set to continue in May with polling showing just 7% between the SNP (28%) in first and Scottish Labour (21%) in third, behind the Greens (23%).
Despite these predictions suggesting there's a real three horse race coming for Angus Robertson, his campaign has focussed on blocking the two parties struggling to break the 10% mark, Reform and the Tories.
Speaking to me on the phone while walking his dogs, he reaffirmed that a vote for anyone but the SNP in Edinburgh could lead to Reform gaining momentum, but was cagey on how this could actually manifest in the constituency vote.
"Well, it's an unknown", he responded when quizzed on the tight-run polling figures, adding that the prospect of an SNP majority is a strong pull factor for pro-indy voters, and securing a victory in the winner-takes-all system of the constituency ballot would prevent a pro-Union candidate from stealing the seat, with him adding that even a Labour victory could lead to Reform making headway, after allegations of a potential anti-SNP pact between the two parties.
READ MORE: Reform MSP privately attacked 'weasel' colleague, Anas Sarwar says
"Why does it need to be SNP one and two?", I also asked.
"Because that's the precedent" for a referendum, he explained, "we have a majority at the moment in the Scottish parliament of pro-independence MSPs, and we have sought to secure a referendum during this last parliamentary term and were rebuffed," claiming an SNP majority, similar to that seen in 2011, rather than a pro-indy one including the Greens, would be the mandate needed to push for a second referendum.
"I'm just particularly keen that we give nobody an excuse to undermine the case for a referendum."
Speaking to Slater, kitted out in cycling gear in front of the Commonwealth Pool, she laughed Robertson's dismissal off, saying "Well, I mean they can't read a poll", adding that some polls are even showing the Greens as pipping the SNP to the seat.
"Angus, I think is running a bit scared," she added.
"This is our opportunity to win our first constituency in Scotland," she told me, "It will be a big thing if we can manage that... Everyone's really excited."
Scottish Labour did not respond to an interview bid, but Slater touted a unique suggestion for the party.
"And at some point, I think Labour's going to have to cave on [independence] because the electoral maths aren't mathing... people who are pro-independence are thinking Greens or SNP," she said.
"Labour is having to share the paddling pool with LibDems, Tories, and Reform now... They can't win like that.
"I'm really interested to see if they do the math and start to soften their stance on independence, because I can't see how a unionist vote split four ways is ever going to compete with an independence vote split two ways."
The key issues on the ground
Speaking to locals in the Meadows, housing came up consistently. Whether it was availability of housing stock, a lack of new-build construction, or unaffordable rents, whoever is able to convince voters of their plan to resolve Edinburgh's housing crisis is likely to see success.
Rachel, who has lived in Edinburgh for three years, said the housing market is "stressful", and that she wants "to stay in Edinburgh, it feels like home", but the cost of living in the city is "extortionate".
When asked who she thinks could make the biggest dent in the issue she said "I'd like to think the Greens... but I'm not 100% convinced", her friend, James, who agreed housing is an issue in the city said he likes Anas Sarwar, but is "very very reluctant to vote for Labour at the moment".
Similarly, Milo, speaking to me in Bruntsfield, a new addition to the constituency, said that "housing is too expensive".
Transport in the city and across Scotland was also brought up, with Milo saying there's "still too many cars" and that "we need to get more people using it", in reference to public transport.
Nick echoed this, saying public transport is one of the biggest issues, and although he is "more concerned about the railway infrastructure around Scotland, rather than specifically Edinburgh," he still intends on voting Green in both the constituency and regional ballot.
Commenting on these issues, Robertson was clear that independence was the best route to easing the pressures of the cost of living in Edinburgh, adding that the SNP have delivered improvements to renters rights, building maintenance regulation, and public transport through the scrapping of peak rail fares and the £2 bus fare pledge.
Similarly, the Greens pointed to some of their landmark pledges that have been implemented, such as rent controls and restrictions on SLT's, but said more has to be done on enforcement, alleging that there are too many illegal short term let landlords in the city's most in-demand areas.
"The more of us who live here, the better of a community place it is," she added.
"Tourists are absolutely welcome, but the balance needs to be toward the needs of people who live here, and I think the council is gradually tipping that balance in the right direction."
On the point of tourism, both candidates spoke about the potential benefits of the new tourist levy, which is predicted to raise £50 million for the city in its first year.
Robertson said there are some "really sensible interventions" proposed, highlighted increased funding for local policing in particular, as well as speaking about the need for a public health approach to drug and alcohol addiction in the city.
"It's something that has to benefit the people of Edinburgh as well as the tourism economy," he added.
Slater said that the city "does suffer from over-tourism", but there is a delicate balance as "we do want tourists to come here".
READ MORE: SNP look set for power even with pro-Union majority as Reform and Labour scrap
She spoke about the importance of ensuring the new tourist levy directs funds to where communities most need them.
The tourist levy will be allocating £2m to participatory budgeting (PB), a mechanism in which locals vote on what community projects should receive a share of a funding pot.
"We're very excited about that being expanded", she said.
"It can feel like politics is being done to you and then instead of with you... from the point of view of a politician, it's much harder to say, well, I'm closing your kids' playground if you know the people, right?
"So the participatory budgeting is a way of connecting people back up of saying, OK, I understand how to interact with the system, and I understand how to explain what I need and maybe I can get a bit of money to for the local party."
Despite the tight polling and the confidence of the candidates, many of the people I spoke to simply weren't sure, or didn't care about the election.
There is a lack of trust in politics, and a lack of faith that the systems will change, the winner of this crucial battleground will likely need to convince the unconvinced that they are the ones to change this.
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