A NEW poll has predicted the winners in all of Scotland’s constituencies – suggesting the SNP could win a majority and trigger a mandate for an independence referendum.
The MRP poll, conducted by JLP Partners, for The Telegraph , predicts that the SNP could win 57 constituency seats, and a further 10 on the regional list, giving them a majority of 67.
At the constituency level, it predicts Labour could win eight, the LibDems five and Reform three.
It suggests that Anas Sarwar’s party could pick up seats in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Midlothian and other seats across central Scotland.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar seething over Reform UK's 'work together to remove SNP claim'
The poll also suggests Malcolm Offord’s party could win Aberdeenshire West, Dumfriesshire, and Strathkelvin and Bearsden.
JLP partners used multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) – a statistical method that combines survey and population data to predict the outcome after May 7, 2026.
Three previous MRP polls for the Scottish elections all predicted a slim SNP majority of 67 seats in the 129-seat parliament.
And the newly released polling shows that the SNP could secure its majority thanks to picking up MSPs on the regional list.
The poll predicts:
- SNP: 57 constituency seats, 10 regional seats (67)
- Labour: Eight constituency seats, 11 regional seats (19)
- Reform UK: Three constituency seats, 14 regional seats (17)
- Scottish Tories: 10 regional seats (10)
- Scottish Greens: Nine regional seats (9)
- Scottish LibDems: Five constituency seats, two regional seats (7)
Neither the Tories or the Greens are predicted to pick up a constituency seat at the election.
John Swinney has led the SNP's campaign with a bid for a majority, citing the precedent set by Alex Salmond in 2011 which led to the 2014 independence referendum.
It comes after Reform’s Scotland leader claimed that Sarwar approached him at the start of the election campaign suggesting the two parties could “work together” to block the SNP from forming the next Scottish Government. Sarwar has furiously disputed this, calling it “nonsense” and a "lie".
JLP Partners' polling also found that Labour is on course to lose Wales for the first time since devolution.
It predicts that Plaid Cymru will emerge as the largest party in Wales, with Reform UK in second place, and Labour in third.
Plaid are predicted to win 33 of the 96 available Senedd seats, Reform 29, and Labour 17.
The Green Party of England and Wales are forecast to win just three seats.
At the English local authority level, the poll predicts Labour could suffer its worst night in local election history – winning just 42 councils – with almost half of those in London.
Zack Polanski’s party is set to gain control of two of London’s 32 boroughs, but will come second in many of the other 19 councils Labour is on course to hold.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s party is predicted to gain control of up to 69 councils, at the higher end. A more modest prediction puts Reform at winning 56 councils, compared to 42 for Labour, 17 for the LibDems and 15 for the Tories.
It comes after our exclusive MRP poll predicted that the SNP will return 67 MSPs at the vote on May 7 – enough to control the Scottish parliament outright.
See the full list of predictions from the latest poll below.
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