REFORM UK are set to become Holyrood’s second party as the SNP remain the dominant force in Scottish politics, according to a fresh poll on voting intention.
It is the first survey conducted since Anas Sarwar called for his UK leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, and the results bode badly for Labour, predicting they could even slide to fourth position behind a surging Scottish Green party.
The Find Out Now poll, commissioned exclusively by The National, projected that the SNP would win 36% of the constituency vote, with Reform UK in second – but 15 points behind – on 21%. Labour polled at 12%, the Greens 10%, the LibDems 9%, and the Tories 7%. Alba scored 2%.
On the regional list vote, the SNP were ahead of the pack on 29% (seven points down on their constituency share), while Reform UK were second on 20%. Labour again polled at 12%, while the Greens jumped to 14%. The Tories scored 10%, while the LibDems were on 9%, and Alba 2%.
Seat projections using the DevolvedElections calculator tool put the SNP on 59 MSPs, should those results play out at the May vote. All of the party’s seats were predicted to come from constituencies.
Reform UK were predicted to return 25 MSPs (four constituency and 21 on the lists) while the Greens were on 14 MSPs (four constituency and 10 on the lists).
Labour were predicted to return 13 MSPs, while the Tories return nine. All of these two parties’ MSPs were projected to come from the regional lists. Finally, the LibDems were predicted to return nine MSPs, five from constituency votes and four from the list.
If that plays out in May, Holyrood would have a majority of 73 pro-independence MSPs.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a polling expert working variously at Trinity College Dublin, Queen's University Belfast, and Queen Mary University of London, said the results from the survey showed that a “divided Unionism … could allow the SNP to sweep most of the constituency seats”.
He said: "On just 7% of the constituency vote this poll shows the Conservatives struggling, with only Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire looking like a serious prospect for a constituency seat while Labour are also well down.
“Both are 4% shy of their recent average which puts even their safest seats at risk – on a showing this poor Labour could even lose Dumbarton.
“A strong showing for Reform put them in contention for constituency seats across the North East, with some long-shot opportunities in Southern Scotland.
READ MORE: Expert analysis on poll putting SNP in touching distance of majority
"Of the traditional Unionist parties only the LibDems have held up in this poll so they should hold their own but the rest of Scotland is very fractured. Lots of seats could be won with under a third of the vote as the system struggles to handle so many parties. This also makes seat projections even harder than usual.
"A direct effect of such divided Unionism is that it could allow the SNP to sweep most of the constituency seats.
“The SNP looks set to lose about 10% of the vote since 2021 but it could only cost them two seats, and both of those to the Greens.”
Kelly said that the Greens had done well out of the poll, and could be set to gain their first constituencies in a Holyrood election in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
“This would surpass expectations and shore up a comfortable pro-indy majority of seats despite winning just under half the vote,” Kelly noted.
Westminster voting intention
Elsewhere, the poll also asked Scots how they would vote in a fresh General Election, and found that the SNP were likely to emerge as the party with the most Scottish MPs.
For Westminster, the SNP polled at 31%, Reform UK at 23%, Labour at 14%, the Tories at 8%, and the LibDems and Greens both tied on 10%.
Kelly added: "This most recent Find Out Now poll differs a lot from most of the recent polling that we have seen in Scotland so should be read with caution.
“Results for Labour and the Conservatives are particularly low when compared to other recent findings with the Greens and Reform getting a considerably higher vote share than others have found. Our policy at DevolvedElections is to include such outliers as they may prove to be correct in the long run, but averages are usually more accurate than a single poll."
Elsewhere, the survey also found that Scots would back independence if a new referendum were held tomorrow by 53% to 47%.
Commenting on the poll, SNP Depute leader Keith Brown said: “As the Westminster establishment tears itself apart over scandal after scandal, John Swinney’s focus is on the NHS, tackling the cost of living crisis and offering hope through a fresh start with independence.
“In stark contrast to the Labour Party, the SNP is delivering on the priorities of Scots - from opening walk-in GP centres to freezing rail fares - that’s what you get with John Swinney’s trusted leadership.
“This poll reflects a month that has left Scottish voters in no doubt that the SNP will always be on Scotland’s side.”
Find Out Now polled 1002 Scots voters between February 13 and 19, 2026.
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