SCOTLAND is set to elect a pro-independence majority of MSPs at the next Holyrood elections, according to a new major poll.
The SNP are on course to be the largest party come May, with Scottish Labour and Reform UK neck-and-neck for second place and the Greens in sixth, according to a new Survation poll commissioned by True North Advisors.
On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 19%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 16%, followed by the Tories on 13%, the LibDems 9%, and Greens 8%. Alba polled at 1%.
On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 28%, while Reform UK and Scottish Labour both polled at 18%. The Tories were on 13%, the LibDems 11%. The Greens scored 9% and Alba 3%.
Seat projections from the Survation polling suggest the SNP will be the largest party with 61 seats.
Reform UK and Scottish Labour would be tied on 18 seats, the Tories would have 12 seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 11. The Scottish Green Party would win nine seats, meaning that Scotland is on course to elect a pro-independence majority of 70 MSPs.
There are 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, meaning 65 MSPs are needed to form a majority government.
Among devolved leaders, John Swinney received an approval rating of -5% and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar recorded an approval rating of -18%.
Almost half, 47%, of voters said the performance of the UK Labour Government would make them less likely to vote Scottish Labour in May, compared to just 17% who said the performance of Keir Starmer’s administration would make them more likely to back Sarwar’s first minister bid.
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, who conducted the polling, said: “Labour at 16 per cent (-2) would be the lowest level we have recorded in Survation’s Holyrood constituency polling this parliament - down around six points on a year ago and roughly half the 33–34 per cent we were measuring in mid/late 2023. Meanwhile, the SNP are steady on 34 per cent (no change on our last poll at the end of 2025).
“Beyond Labour, opposition to the SNP remains fragmented. Reform’s momentum may be stalling at 19 per cent (-3), while the Conservatives show a modest pick-up to 13 per cent (+3). The Liberal Democrats are on 9 per cent (+1) and the Greens 8 per cent (+1), with Alba on 1 per cent (no change) and Others 0 per cent (-1). The net effect is the SNP maintaining a clear lead, now 15 points (+3) on the constituency vote.
“Can the SNP win an outright majority on these numbers? Perhaps not. Two factors will moderate how these constituency figures translate into SNP seats. Obviously, regional list votes are allocated proportionally and act as a corrective to first past the post constituency outcomes; in our list-vote measure the SNP are on 28 per cent, with Reform 18 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, Conservatives 13 per cent, Lib Dems 11 per cent, Greens 9 per cent and Alba 3 per cent.
“Separately, we would also expect tactical voting in constituencies in seats where voters prioritise stopping the SNP or stopping a particular challenger which can further weaken the link between headline vote share and eventual seats.
“A projection using these polling figures, based on a version of Ballot Box Scotland's nominal 2021 figures and proportional swing, would yield an SNP seat count of 61 seats with Labour and Reform on 18 seats each, the Conservatives on 12, Lib Dems on 11, Greens on 9 and no seats for other parties, including Alba.”
For the survey, Survation polled 835 Scots between January 8 and January 12, 2026.
