AVID readers of this column will recall that throughout 2025 an argument was put about the nature of the emerging multipolar world. That the system which followed the Second World War, known as the rules-based international order, was coming to an end. With it too, the institution building that came alongside it.
This period of global restructuring would involve a historic transition, in which the United States would become a regional superpower, while zones of influence were carved out and negotiated by the major powers.
This process has been signposted in various ways: the shutting down of USAID, also losing its soft-power network; the reorientation of the CIA to focus on “traditional allies”; the consequences of the tariffs.
READ MORE: Foreign Secretary fails to call US actions in Venezuela a breach of international law
If you want a guide to this process, it is publicly available to read in the form of the Trump administration’s national security strategy, in which special attention is devoted to US dominance of the western hemisphere. Just days into 2026, we saw this process come to life with the illegal abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
The message is clear: anything in the regional sphere of American influence is fair game, from Caracas to Nuuk.
The brazenly imperial nature of the “operation” in Venezuela was by design. There is no pretence whatsoever that it is remotely concerned with democracy or human rights. Donald Trump and his henchmen are very clear: this is about oil, power and control.
Such clarity is by design meant to dramatise the process. The US is sending a message to its near neighbours that it intends to impose a system of totalising subjugation throughout the hemisphere, including Europe and Canada.
To China and Russia, the transmission is rather different, by granting those states permission to consolidate their own backyards.
Meanwhile, Trump lists off the countries in his administration’s sights. In the case of Greenland, there is no issue with disruptions to Nato.
This process of restructuring is taking place over a short time frame, and is orchestrated with high levels of planning, with the backing of major players in the transnational corporate and private sector. That does not, of course, mean all will be plain sailing. Events are always open to disruption and derailment.
But the US has learned from previous misadventures. Thus, the approach to Venezuela is different to that of Iraq. Today, there is no attempt to nation-build, no strategic value in promoting civil war or in attempting a military occupation. That is why the architecture of the Venezuelan state has been left intact.
The idea is to use the decapitation of its leadership and the chokehold over its oil industry, aided by the major Wall Street firms, to pressure the remaining political leadership into following American orders.
Note too, in this vein, that Trump has ruled out manoeuvres to install, through democratic or other means, María Corina Machado, the darling of Western liberalism. All that matters is the transactional nature of power – nothing else.
The response to these developments from European capitals has been predictable. Recently, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “In the coming weeks, months and perhaps within a few years, it will be decided whether Europe will remain an independent power in the global economy or whether we will become a pawn of the major economic centres in Asia or America.”
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That question has now been answered. Waffle about international law had already been obliterated by Gaza, and to speak of it now while failing to condemn the capture of Maduro is incredulous.
The pathway is already set, and the idea of Europe as an independent bloc within the world system is all but over. Instead, it will be subordinated to US regional hegemony. The British state too, is in the same position.
Keir Starmer looked futile at best in his absurd and meandering assessment of Venezuela. As did the various government spokespeople whose line simply could not stray into the obvious: that yes, abducting the head of a foreign state in the dead of night is, in fact, illegal.
And just as with Gaza, no care at all is given to the latest crossing of the Rubicon, the consequences for global security, self-determination and human rights. Taking absurdity to new levels, Home Office minister Mike Tapp could not state that Trump should stay out of Greenland. That is the UK Government line – see no evil, hear no evil. The die is already cast as far as it is concerned.
This approach, it should be underlined, is a threat to our own democratic traditions and norms, such as they exist. The political leadership are effectively selling their own population down the river to satisfy the American strategy.
In doing so, they are evacuating all meaningful democratic content from national politics by rendering the remnants of national sovereignty redundant. Nigel Farage, the “great patriot”, is completely in line with this consensus too.
As for Scotland – the vassal of a vassal – the First Minister’s comments did not condemn Trump’s latest illegal action either. Indeed, in the coming year the whole concept of Scottish independence will be contextualised by geopolitics, because it is going to impinge on the very nature of our society.
The edifice of the liberal order is being consigned to history by the very states which constructed it. This fact will come to dominate the domestic scene in the coming period. These are historic times, and they will challenge and test all politics. Because one way or another, the new reality we all inhabit will have to be confronted.
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