POLLING expert Professor John Curtice has said he would not bet on Keir Starmer leading Labour into the next General Election.
Speaking on the latest edition of The National podcast, the University of Strathclyde professor also outlined the strategy the SNP needs to take in order to return to government next year, addressed the changing style of politics behind the rise of Reform UK – and said it was likely that the UK’s three devolved governments would all be led by pro-independence politicians after the 2026 elections.
In May, Scotland and Wales will elect a new parliament while regions across England – including London, where Labour run a majority of the 32 councils – will have local elections.
Curtice said it looked likely that the SNP would win in Scotland – though with a reduced seat count – and Reform could top the polls in Wales.
However, he went on: “The crucial point is that although Reform might come first, it looks very, very unlikely that they can get a first minister elected … unless Labour were to deliberately sit on their hands and allow a Reform first minister to be elected.”
Curtice predicted that Plaid Cymru will control the Welsh government for the first time with the support of Labour, reversing the roles the two parties have previously played in the Senedd.
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He added: “Of course, what it would mean – assuming that John Swinney is still first minister, which seems a reasonable bet even if the SNP don't do quite as well as we might anticipate at the moment – it does mean we will have a nationalist first minister in Edinburgh, a nationalist first minister in Cardiff, and of course we will definitely have a nationalist first minister in Belfast, because Michelle O'Neill is not facing an election.
“This is not what devolution was meant to be about.”
Asked if this situation, with three pro-independence first ministers, would be something Starmer’s leadership could survive, Curtice said: “Whether or not Keir Starmer can survive will depend on the reaction of his party.”
He said that London would be a key place to watch, explaining: “Our geography is fundamentally changed. The idea that the Labour Party is a party of the north of England or the Midlands, it's yesterday's story, let alone the idea of the Labour Party being the party of Scotland. Even in Wales, its share of the vote fell [at the] last election …
“It is London that is Labour's core area. I argue that basically Labour's core electorate now is young middle-class professionals living in London. That's where the Greens, that's the constituency they're appealing to.”
Curtice said an “awful lot of wards” may change hands in the UK capital in 2026, adding that a key question is “how much damage do the Greens do either directly or indirectly by either taking seats or votes off Labour”.
“If Labour do badly in London, it will be big headlines,” he said.
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While Labour are under pressure from the Greens in the UK capital, Reform are challenging them in their old heartlands, many of which are Leave-voting.
“That's what's going to determine Keir Starmer’s fate and whether or not the party decide that they have to get rid of him,” Curtice said. “It won't be the alignment of the three nationalist first ministers.”
Asked if he would bet on Starmer leading Labour into the next General Election, he said: “I don't think I'd want to put any money on him doing so, no. But I'm not a betting man.
“I think put it like this: I'd want reasonably good odds.”
On the Scottish elections, Curtice – the former president of the British Polling Council – said that the SNP’s campaign had to focus on two key groups: Green voters, and Yes supporters who vote Labour.
“The days when the SNP can pick up significant shares of the vote from those who are opposed to independence in the way they did in 2011 – the foundation of their success in 2011 was support from nearly 40% of those who were opposed to independence – those days are over,” he said.
“Very few Unionists are willing to vote for the SNP. Therefore [John Swinney] has to focus on the other half of the country.”
Curtice added: “He certainly wants the 10% or so people who are supporting the Greens. He would love to get the 10% or so Yes supporters that are backing Labour, because that is the pathway to him maximising his parliamentary position in Holyrood.”
You can listen to the full National Podcast with Professor John Curtice on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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