THE Labour and SNP Governments are both “stuck in a bind” over how to deal with Donald Trump as his business dealings in Scotland create an “unprecedented” diplomatic challenge, a leading expert in US history has said.
Speaking to The National ahead of a series examining Trump’s impact on Scotland, Professor Frank Cogliano said that the US president’s golf courses – in Ayrshire and Aberdeenshire – presented both an opportunity and a challenge to UK politicians.
"It's an unprecedented situation because Donald Trump is confusing his personal business interests and his political interests,” Cogliano said. “In the past, poor Jimmy Carter put his peanut farm in a blind trust so there would be no appearance of impropriety. Donald Trump doesn't operate like that.”
Referencing reports that the UK Government had lobbied for The Open, golf’s oldest major tournament, to be held at the Trump Turnberry course, Cogliano went on: “One can imagine the UK Government wanting to use whatever soft power it has to try and influence Trump.
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“On the other hand, this is a blurring of a business interest in politics, which is not what we do here in the UK as a rule. Historically we haven't really done it in the United States since the 19th century, which was quite corrupt, but Trump, Trump is old fashioned in this regard.”
The University of Edinburgh professor added: “The UK Government is kind of stuck in a bind – and I imagine that governments around the world where Trump has business interests are facing this – because on one hand this gives them leverage. On the other hand, it's complicated.
“Let's suppose John Swinney took a principled stand and said, ‘The Open should not be a Turnberry because this is corruption’.
“Well then you don't want him slapping a 100% tariff on whisky, which is the kind of thing he might do.”
“His relationship with Scotland is very strange and interesting because he makes relatively little of it considering his mother is from Scotland,” he said.
“[Trump's] got a direct link, but he doesn't make that much of that except I suppose when trying to promote his business interests here.
“I remember before his inauguration talking to some people in the government and some people in business, and the business folks were fairly optimistic, saying, ‘well, he's Scottish, he likes us, we don't have to worry that much about tariffs’. I thought, ‘Oh, I don't know about that’.
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“He's a very transactional guy, he's a very vindictive guy. His history is littered with people who he allegedly liked who he betrayed.
“He'll run roughshod over everybody – and I don't think the Scottish connection will necessarily protect Scotland.”
Attempts to appease Trump present a second challenge for UK politicians, who must court him without angering their own voters – with whom he is overwhelmingly unpopular. YouGov polling has found just 16% of UK adults have a positive view of the US president.
“[It’s] like juggling,” Cogliano said, “trying to keep Trump happy with trying to keep the vast, vast majority of your own voters that don't like him happy.”
In February, Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a letter from the King inviting Trump for a second state visit – a move widely seen as an attempt to appease the US president.
Trump’s polling troubles are much worse in the US, Cogliano said.
“He's got the worst 100-day polling results since they started polling. This is unprecedented,” the University of Edinburgh expert said.
“Obama's approval rating was around 63% at this point back in 2009, for example. Biden was in positive territory at this point back four years ago.
“The only person who's in the same neighbourhood is Trump during his first administration. This is historically bad.”
Cogliano added: “So he's unpopular, a lot of his policies are unpopular, a lot of the things he's doing are unpopular, but he's also unconstrained. It's very strange.”
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Could today’s situation mirror Trump’s experience in Scotland 15 years ago, when the SNP government allowed him to develop golf courses in Aberdeenshire despite opposition from locals and environmental groups?
In both Scotland and the US, Trump made grand promises – of a £1 billion investment and 6000 jobs in Aberdeenshire, or a “golden age” for American citizens – that have failed to materialise.
Cogliano said the US president’s actions in Scotland and the Oval Office were a “good comparison”.
“There don't seem to be consequences for him not living up to his promises,” he added. “The question here is when or if he will face any.”
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