Scotland would vote Yes to independence, new poll finds

Researchers at Find Out Now, commissioned by Independent Voices, found support for independence at 52% versus 48% excluding, undecided voters and those who declined to answer.

In a survey carried out among 1402 respondents between September 5 and 12, the polling firm found Yes was in the lead in a methodology weighted to respondents’ 2014 referendum vote and their likelihood to cast a ballot in a future poll.

The Yes lead result is understood to be higher than other pollsters due to the weighting methodology used by Find Out Now.

The firm calculates a likely turnout at any future independence referendum to be around 85%.

But when the turnout factor is excluded, No takes the lead over Yes, polling at 51% versus 49%.

READ MORE: Five things we learned from the YouGov poll showing an increase in support for Yes

Revealing the polling on social media, Independent Voices wrote: "This is the second poll I've commissioned in 2023, and continues to show a small but solid lead for Yes.

"The polling also highlights the impact of sampling methods on poll results. Polls that use the 2014 indyref result to weight their findings tend to overestimate the No vote and under-represent new voters.

"Find Out Now's approach reflects the demographic changes since 2014 and provides a more robust approach to sampling."

'Westminster chaos makes case for indy' 

Keith Brown, the depute leader of the SNP, said: "Each passing day the chaos inflicted by the Westminster parties on Scotland increases the case for Scottish independence.

"In contrast, the people of Scotland can see that they have an ambitious SNP Government working hard every day to improve their lives and support them through the Westminster cost-of-living crisis. 

"The SNP will continue to work for every vote and take nothing for granted. Neighbouring countries are happier, wealthier and fairer than the UK - so why not Scotland?"

Greens MSP Mark Ruskell said: "With a disastrous and unaccountable Tory government in Downing Street and a spineless and unprincipled Labour opposition, it is no wonder that support for Scottish independence is so high.

"When it comes to the brutal austerity that has ruined so many lives, the destructive oil and gas exploration that is harming our climate and curbing the rights of our Scottish Parliament, the Tories and Labour are joined at the political hip.

"They are not offering the change that is so necessary or any kind of vision that anyone can be inspired by.

"With Scottish Greens in government we are using the limited powers we have to do things differently. 

"That is why we have introduced a Scottish Child Payment worth £1300 a year for the most vulnerable families, why we have delivered free bus travel for young people, why we are scrapping peak rail fares from October and why we are investing in the renewable jobs that are so important to our future. 

"But we are doing it with one hand tied behind our backs by a Westminster establishment that has contempt for our parliament and our democracy.

"Independence isn't just about moving on from a broken Westminster consensus, it is about unlocking our potential and giving the people of Scotland the powers and the opportunity to build a fairer, greener and better future."

A spokesperson for the Alba Party said: "This is another welcome poll that shows that support for independence is still flying high.

"It is further evidence that there is now a widening gap between support for the SNP which is falling and support for independence which half the country and rising are in favour of. 

"It is vital that Humza Yousaf doesn’t put party before country at the next General Election.

"He should back a Scotland United pro-independence pact so that we can use the high independence support to win a mandate to enter straight into independence negotiations after the General Election.”

While the slight lead for Yes in one of the polls will cheer independence campaigners, the other underlines a more prevalent trend of both sides of the constitutional debate being neck and neck, with little sign of either breaking the impasse. 

A poll from August showed support for independence unchanged over a period of three months, at 48%. 

And another poll from a different firm the same month put Yes and No on 42% and 44%, respectively. 

While support for independence remains steady, polls have also shown declining support for the once-indominable SNP, who were recently predicted to pick up the same share of the vote as Labour in Scotland at the next Westminster election. 

But analysis of the same Redfield and Winton Strategies research showed the enduring dominance of pro-independence parties in Holyrood with 70 seats between the SNP and the Greens, locking in a Yes majority.