Where next for Scottish independence? Key Yes voices weigh in

Blair Jenkins said the strategy of using the next General Election as a de facto referendum alongside a “refreshed and fully-resourced” campaign will shift the polls towards independence.

His comments come after the Supreme Court judgment last week which ruled the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to hold a referendum on leaving the union without the approval of Westminster.

Here we ask key voices in the independence movement and campaigners what they think of the Supreme Court decision – and what should happen next.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland in the 2014 referendum

IT was right to go to the Supreme Court and good to have clarity on Westminster’s ability to veto a referendum whatever the mandate in Scotland.

I agree that the best immediate strategy is to use a General Election (UK or Scottish) as a plebiscite on independence. My main question about this option is whether the two largest pro-indy parties – the SNP and the Greens – should stand in that election with party labels or under a Yes umbrella.

I know the parties and their candidates would have concerns about being absorbed into a wider pro-independence ticket, but those might be outweighed by the higher levels of public participation, energy and indeed fundraising that would almost certainly be inspired by an official and inclusive Yes campaign. My instinct is it would also generate a higher vote in favour of independence, so a Yes option on the ballot paper certainly deserves careful consideration.

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I believe the General Election strategy alongside a refreshed and fully resourced Yes campaign will shift the polls more in our direction and pile increasing pressure nationally and internationally on the Westminster parties.

It’s important to keep linking the case for independence to the desire for a fairer and more caring economy, aiming to give everyone a decent life. Independence is also the only way to escape from Brexit and rejoin the EU, achieving the levels of prosperity enjoyed by other European nations.

I think Nicola is facing some very big judgement calls and I would trust her to get those right. I’ve never been more confident that Scotland is heading for independence.

Kevin Pringle, former strategic communications director for the SNP

THE ruling wasn’t a surprise, but it’s worth noting that neither Government got exactly what it wanted. The Scottish Government obviously hoped for a green light for a referendum, but the UK Government sought no definitive judgment at this stage on whether Holyrood has powers to consult the people on independence.

Historically, the ideology of the Union has tended to exaggerate Scotland’s status – in 2014, for example, Gordon Brown talked about Scotland “leading the United Kingdom” – so the legal reality of our lack of agency sweeps that away. Many pro-UK politicians will be worried about how people react to that. As the late William McIlvanney once said, Scotland’s motto should be: “Wait a minute! That’s no’ fair”. [The election] is a very high bar, and it’s good that the SNP plans to hold a special conference to discuss the detail and practicalities. The SNP and Greens achieved a majority of the popular vote in 2015, so it can be done, although that election wasn’t about independence and obviously the next one would be entirely about that. As a general point, it would be important that independence is presented as the means of getting to grips with people’s social and economic concerns, such as the cost of living crisis, and isn’t allowed to be portrayed as an abstract issue.

READ MORE: Andrew Tickell: Why the Supreme Court indyref2 judgment won't stop independence

Beyond processes and pathways, the most important thing for the Yes movement is building sustained majority support in Scotland for independence. That’s what will ultimately find democratic expression. The good news is that – unlike Supreme Court judgments or the intransigence of transient prime ministers – achieving that is very much in the hands of campaigners in Scotland. It’s not an exact parallel but a Scottish Parliament was blocked at Westminster and finally achieved because it was indeed the settled will of the majority in Scotland. The demand wasn’t going to go away, and the same can happen in relation to independence.

Mary McCabe, national co-convener of Pensioners for Independence

THE court confirmed that this Orwellian “voluntary” Union has bars on the door. We’re in a marriage where there’s no divorce without the agreement of the controlling spouse.

The court said Scotland’s not a colony. But we’re governed like a colony. The Secretary of State for Scotland (appointed from outside Scotland) outranks all elected bodies within Scotland. Malcolm Rifkind himself once said the position was “like being a governor-general”.

The plan to use the next UK General Election as a de facto referendum faces hurdles. The UK franchise is confined to UK or Commonwealth citizens aged over 18. The pro-indy vote is strong amongst “New Scots” (whether originally from the EU or the rest of the world) and amongst 16-18 year-olds. These can vote in elections organised by Holyrood.

The UK Government ignored the previous mandates for a referendum won by consecutive Scottish Governments. Why would it honour that next mandate, if won?

The way ahead is threefold – Grassroots Yes groups maximise their campaigning to raise support for independence.

We build on our informal international support. Six European cities held sympathetic demos on Wednesday. It might be possible to register with the UN as a national liberation movement.

Our Scottish MPs learn from Parnell and disrupt House of Commons procedures. Don’t boycott it. Attend, but become a thorn in their flesh. Other MPs treat Scotland’s representatives with contempt; respond in kind.

Last time the Speaker threw the SNP contingent out, SNP membership soared.

There must be cooperation amongst pro-indy parties and factions. End the feud between the SNP and Alba. The cause of independence is more important than any individuals.

Connor Beaton, spokesman for Radical Independence Campaign (RIC) Scotland

THE ruling by unelected judges of the UK Supreme Court was not unexpected, but confirms the democratic crisis in the UK state today. We have an unelected Prime Minister, an unelected head of state, a fresh round of austerity that nobody voted for, and now we’ve been told that we can’t vote for independence either. This refusal to countenance democracy also has a profound impact on the people of Wales and of Ireland in determining their own future.

This latest insult must be answered with a rising tide of protest by the Scottish people. RIC will support a campaign of mass direct action — strikes, protests, rallies, civil disobedience — against this rotten undemocratic UK Government. Independence supporters should join workers on picket lines in the coming weeks and months and make clear that the campaign to defend Scottish democracy is intertwined with the struggle for pay increases and workers’ rights amid artificial inflation and rampant crisis profiteering.

The SNP’s suggestion that the next Westminster election could be used as a proxy referendum is a risky tactic which undermines the broad, non-partisan nature of the grassroots independence movement. It will exclude a substantial part of the Scottish population thanks to the narrower franchise and the Tories’ troubling introduction of voter ID requirements, which will likely see young, working class and ethnic minority voters turned away from polling stations. Irrespective of what plans the SNP adopt, we need urgent action in the form of a mass movement from below that can bring the UK Government to heel.

RIC was brought together a decade ago as the coalition of the pro-independence left across all parties and none. In 2023, we will continue to work with others in Scotland and across these islands to build that mass movement, particularly as we approach the coronation — a disgraceful spectacle when tens of thousands of people in Scotland are being driven into poverty.

Josh Mennie, co-founder of Aberdeen Independence Movement (AIM)

ALTHOUGH disappointing, the Supreme Court’s ruling was not surprising. The fault here though does not lie with the Supreme Court justices, as it is there job to rule on what the law is, but it is the fault of inadequate constitutional law in the UK, where in a so-called “union of equals”, a partner nation has their democratic route to independence blocked by a counterpart in this “voluntary union”.

The UK is a country in swift decline caused by the incompetence and bad decision making from Westminster. The extent to which this country is economically and fiscally struggling has been a political choice from the UK Government and Scotland needs no part in it.

We’re in a situation where the people of Scotland have voted for a majority of pro-independence parliamentarians in every single Scottish and UK General Election since 2014 on the basis of holding another independence referendum.

Let’s be clear here, the UK have literally blocked the democratic will of the Scottish people to hold a referendum, which of course has been the preferred route to independence. The next step must be to explore other options available to us because Scotland’s democracy cannot and will not be denied. Because the UK Government is doing everything it can to stop the Scottish people expressing our will on becoming an independent country, the next General Election will have to be used as a de facto referendum, where if pro-independence parties accumulatively win with over 50% of the popular vote, Scotland will negotiate our independence from there.

As Valentina Servera Clavell eloquently put it: “If this is a voluntary union, then show us the door so we can leave”.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founder and chief executive of Business for Scotland

MY message is that we need to put any disappointment from the Supreme Court travesty aside and take our Yes campaign to the next level.

The Scottish Government has announced that the UK General Election, expected in May 2024, will be fought on the single issue of independence, making it a de facto independence referendum. A pro-independence majority in that election would have a mandate to begin negotiations with Westminster to leave the union.

The work of convincing voters of the benefits of independence ahead of GE24 must start now. By losing 16-18 year olds and EU nationals as they can’t vote in a UK General Election, the Yes side loses about 1% of its core vote. We are working with 127 local Yes groups to be more effective and raising £100,000 to get the grassroots campaign ready to win Scotland’s independence.

The UK Supreme Court has ruled that the people of Scotland do not have a right to self-determination as they are not oppressed. However, by passing that judgment, the Supreme Court’s unintentional consequence is to democratically oppress Scotland and proven beyond all doubt that the UK is not a voluntary Union. This fact alone makes a majority of pro-Yes MPs almost certain under current UK General Election rules.

What it all boils down to is this: the UK Government agreed to a Section 30 referendum in 2014, as the polls told them No would win – they will not agree to a Section 30 referendum now, as the polls tell them they would lose.

The Supreme Court decision is an affront to democracy, another symptom of the failing UK. The Westminster parties expect Scottish voters to just accept that their votes don’t count. The fact that any UK Government rejected by Scotland that clearly does not care for the needs of Scotland can economically and democratically oppress them whilst denying them the right to self-determination, just goes to prove how detached and ideologically bankrupt they are.

History will look back at this day and say it was one of the key dates that led to Scottish independence. I encourage everyone to join their local Yes groups – get off social media and on the streets, deliver leaflets, man stalls volunteer – force the issue now or forever live under oppressive London rule.