IT will be “much harder” for the Tories to hold Douglas Ross’s Moray constituency at the next election as a major shake-up of Scotland’s seats is planned, local councillors predict.
As the Boundary Commission plans to change the borders of 35 seats – and cut the nation’s total number of representatives in the UK Parliament – politicians predict the Scottish Tories will struggle to hold onto their party leader’s Westminster constituency.
Ross, who is also an MSP in the region as well as a part-time linesman, has already declared that he does not intend to run as a candidate at the next General Election.
READ MORE: Maps reveal planned changes to Scotland's constituencies as two MPs to be cut
But as the body intends to split Moray between two different constituencies from summer 2023, his party is expected to face trouble maintaining the seat.
It comes as several polls predict an apocalyptic result for the party in Scotland, with some predicting that they will return zero MPs north of the Border.
As part of a special report in Wednesday’s newspaper, The National examined which areas of the 35 set to change will be most heavily affected.
Jeremie Fernandes, who sits on Moray Council, expects the Boundary Commission changes will have a big impact on Tory support in the area.
"I think Douglas Ross would lose his seat at the next election anyway but of course, in terms of representation, if you take into account Elgin and Nairn, he would lose the seat without any doubt,” the Elgin councillor told The National.
"It would make it so much harder for him. If you look at the results of the previous elections, in the council elections for example, the Tories came third in both wards in Elgin and I believe Nairn is also strong for the SNP. So I don’t think there’s a chance in hell he could win that seat.
"I think the Tory support in Moray is quite strong because of the airbases, but in terms of pure mathematics the proposals could offset that."
Graham Leadbitter, a councillor who previously led the former SNP administration in Moray, echoed those sentiments – arguing will be “harder” for the Tories to keep their seat.
“The SNP have a very strong vote in both that area of the Highlands [Strathspey] and in Moray,” he said. “Whether the Moray boundary stays the same or changes to what is proposed, we would be undoubtedly be running against the Conservative Party."
The Boundary Commission’s proposals would see Moray split into two seats – one called Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, and another called Nairn, Strathspey and Moray West (maps shown below).
The change will see areas like Elgin voting alongside Highland communities of Nairn, Grantown-on-Spey and Aviemore. Those living in Keith would vote for the same MP as people in Aberdeenshire communities like Fraserburgh or Peterhead.
Both Fernandes and Leadbitter told The National that the proposals don’t make sense.
Overall, Scotland is set to lose two MPs, Wales will lose eight, and England will gain 10 as the respective Boundary Commissions of the four nations look to make constituencies proportional to the current population numbers.
The consultation is running until December and constituents can air their views here.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel