Tories to return ZERO Scottish MPs at next election, poll finds

Polls by YouGov and Savanta ComRes, published for The Times and The Scotsman respectively, have found that the Tories are set for electoral devastation north of the Border.

The survey undertaken by YouGov revealed that the Scottish Tories are holding their lowest level of support for almost eight years, with Scottish Labour the main beneficiary.

It appears that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s recent mini-Budget, which tanked the value of the pound, were the main drivers for the nosedive in support.

READ MORE: Wee Ginger Dug: Liz Truss's keynote speech was woefully off-key

The new PM has a net satisfaction score of -70 among Scottish respondents – just one point more than Boris Johnson recorded in his last weeks in No 10.

Just 8% said they believed Truss was doing a good job, which is significantly lower than Johnson’s worst-ever rating in Scotland, which dropped to 17% back in May.

Across the UK, the poll found that in the wake of Tory infighting at their party conference, Truss’s net favourability rating had hit -59, which is 6% worse than Boris Johnson’s when he left office.

Meanwhile, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating has risen by two points to +11 since the last batch of results, and support for the SNP remained strong at 45%.

Support for the Tories in Scotland for a General Election fell to 12%, a drop of seven points since May and their lowest Westminster rating in any survey since February 2015.

Analysis from the UK’s leading polling expert, Sir John Curtice, found that the Tories face losing all six of their Scottish MPs as things stand – with the SNP winning 49 (an increase of one) and Labour picking up seven overall.

Curtice said: “The party looks once again like the minnow it was before its revival under the leadership of Ruth Davidson.”

Meanwhile, support for independence jumped by five points to 43%, as support for the Union dropped by 1 point to 45%, while 7% were undecided.

Commenting on the YouGov survey’s findings, the SNP’s deputy Westminster leader Kirsten Oswald MP said that the “Tory economic crisis engulfing the UK” showed the need for independence.

She added: "This poll shows voting SNP at the next election could wipe out every Tory MP in Scotland – and projects an increase in SNP seats and support for independence.

"The SNP is the main challenger to every Tory MP in Scotland – and with a snap election possible at any point the SNP is ready to fight the Tories and win.

"With all the Westminster parties signed up to a hard Brexit and broken Tory economics, independence is the only way to keep Scotland safe – and only independence can ensure Scotland never again gets Tory governments we don't vote for.”  

The Savanta ComRes poll found that Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack and Scotland Office minister David Duguid would all lose their Westminster seats to the SNP.

The survey concluded that a mere 15% of Scots would support the party – their worst result since the 2015 General Election when they won only one seat.

It also reported that Scottish Labour’s support was sitting at 30% for the next General Election but that they would still trail behind the SNP, who show a support rating of 46%.

Savanta ComRes’s poll found that the SNP would gain five seats overall, taking eight from the Tories and LibDems but losing three to Labour.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta ComRes, said the poll showed Labour were “fishing in the Unionist vote pool” rather than gaining from the SNP.

He added: “The difference between Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives, particularly in the Westminster voting intention, will be particularly striking, with the former opening up a 15-point gap and fully establishing themselves as Scotland's second party. Given the unpopularity of the Conservatives across the rest of the UK at the moment, it's no surprise the story is similar in Scotland.

"However, the SNP remaining strong on 46% is notable. I would not have been surprised to see Labour potentially eat into that SNP vote share, even marginally, and the fact that they did not all-but confirms that the Labour Party are fishing in the Unionist vote pool rather than a specifically centre-left one in Scotland.”

READ MORE: Scotland to fall into recession, say Fraser of Allander Institute as Tory budget measures bite

Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater welcomed a poll boost for her party.

She said: “If these numbers were to be reflected at the ballot box they could translate into a doubling of our MSPs at Holyrood , and suggests that voters like what they are seeing from having Scottish Greens in Government.

“From the rent and eviction legislation currently going through Parliament, to free travel for U22s, work on creating new national parks, renewable energy, biodiversity, the circular economy and more, our influence and approach to progressive politics is hitting home.

“Compare this approach to that of the tear it down, only out for themselves rhetoric emerging from the Tory conference, and it is clear to see how our approach based around people and planet is being welcomed by increasing numbers of people up and down the country.

“Little wonder the numbers predict a wipe-out of Tories in Scotland – we can only hope.

“Of course we always have to be cautious about polls, but coming after steady progress since we entered government under the Bute House Agreement, it is part of a continued trend and hugely encouraging.

“Coming as it does a week before our party conference takes place, it also reflects on the huge amount of work put in not just by MSPs and their dedicated staff, but all the volunteers, supporters and activists who make up the green family.

“Scotland is on the road to independence, climate is at the heart of all we do, and working to ensure a fairer, greener and more equal place to live and work is something more and more people clearly think are things worth voting for.”