WELSH First Minister Mark Drakeford has said the risk that the United Kingdom will not continue in its current form is "greater today than at any time in my political lifetime".
Appearing on The Rest is Politics podcast, the Welsh Labour leader was asked for his views on the future of the devolved country in the hypothetical event that Scotland gains independence and Northern Ireland decides to vote in a border poll to unite with the Republic.
Although he said the independence movement in Wales is "very much a minority", he conceded that there is a lack of articulation from other political parties for the "positive case for a voluntary Union".
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Drakeford also gave his assessment of former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's approach of "muscular unionism", which he argued was "counterproductive".
The podcast is hosted by Tony Blair's former spin doctor Alastair Campbell and former Tory MP and minister Rory Stewart. They spent a significant portion of their latest episode discussing devolution with Drakeford.
Campbell, asking Drakeford to rank the likelihood of an independent Scotland versus a united Ireland added that they are both "massive ifs", added: "I think the likelihood of [a] Northern Ireland border poll is probably first, and I think then an independent Scotland probably second, but how does Wales shape a future then as this bit on the end of England?
"I don’t mean that disrespectfully, but that could happen, I just wonder what you think about that?"
Drakeford replied that it was a question Wales was actively having to address in "a way we never needed to previously".
He explained: "That’s because I think that the risk of the United Kingdom will not continue is greater today than at any time in my political lifetime.
"I certainly don’t think it’s inevitable. I think there’s an offer about of the United Kingdom, it’s a Labour offer in my view, that people would wish to buy into.
"They would see the advantages that the United Kingdom can bring, and we’re desperately short of an articulation by any other party of the positive case for a voluntary Union."
Drakeford then referenced the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales which was set up in January this year, to be co-chaired by former Archbishop of Wales Rowan Williams and Professor Laura McAllister.
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He added: "It’s asked to look at two questions, first of all, if the United Kingdom stays together, how can we better organise ourselves to make sure that it goes on being a success?
"But then it has a second question, that if the United Kingdom starts not to stay together, what are the options for Wales?
"Because the idea that Scotland leaves and everything else continues as though that hadn’t happened is clearly not plausible at all.
"We’ve never needed to do serious thinking about what the choices for Wales would be and the commission will help us to do that, but we’re having to map out that territory with a seriousness that I think reflects the risks that we currently face."
The Welsh FM added that the independence movement is still a "minority" but said that the risks to the UK were bringing the topic into the public sphere.
He added: "There’s no doubt at all where the centre of gravity in Welsh opinion lies, there is a growing interest in independence because of the risks that are there to the future of the United Kingdom, that’s inevitable.
"It would still be a small minority, but no more than 20% or so."
On Johnson's impact on the Union during his tenure as PM, Drakeford set out that his approach to his predecessor Theresa May was "very different".
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He explained: "Theresa May in the final lecture in Edinburgh described the United Kingdom as a voluntary association of four nations.
"I think that was the end of quite a long journey for her, Boris Johnson believed that the way to save the United Kingdom was to assert muscular unionism.
"Bully-boy Britain, as you might pejoratively put, in which the way to secure the future of the United Kingdom was to show who is boss and actually that was completely counterproductive and contributes to the fragility of the United Kingdom.
"Rather than helping it to be something which people choose to belong to, want to belong to."
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