Scottish independence: New poll reveals key arguments for Yes camp

Distrust of Westminster and a feeling Scotland is moving in a different direction from England politically are the strongest arguments for ending the Union, research by Ipsos Scotland has shown.

Asked if they found the argument that the people of Scotland want to “take the country in a very different political direction to England”, 59% of respondents said they found this “very” or “fairly” convincing, while only 36% found it “not very” or “not at all” convincing.

Some 58% of the 1000 Scottish adults polled earlier this month found the argument that Westminster would not govern in Scotland’s interests convincing, while 38% took the opposite view.

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Brexit also remains a driver of support for independence, with Scotland’s remain vote representing a convincing argument for 53% of voters, while 44% said it was not.

Remainers and Brexiters were even more fiercely split on this question: 63% those who voted to stay found it a convincing argument, while 72% of Leave voters said it was unconvincing.

Plan B doubts

And public opinion is split on plans to hold a “de facto” referendum if the Supreme Court rejects permission to hold indyref2.

Scots are almost evenly divided on whether a General Election could deliver a mandate for independence, the study found.

The “de facto” referendum is the SNP and Greens’ back up strategy if the Scottish Government’s attempt to have a bill legislating for indyref2 cleared by the UK Supreme Court.

Judges will hear the case later this year but the outcome is far from certain.

If the Scottish Government is defeated, Nicola Sturgeon has said the SNP will fight the next Westminster election on the sole issue of independence.

The First Minister has said that if pro-independence parties secure a majority of votes, this will amount to a mandate to end the Union.

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But 38% of those surveyed did not agree with this. The study found that 39% of those polled did agree that a majority of pro-indy votes would amount to a mandate.

Some 24% of those asked held no strong views or were undecided.

Meanwhile, economic arguments for independence appeared less convincing to voters.

Only 46% were convinced by the argument that Scotland’s economy would be “stronger outside the UK than within it” with 47% saying this was unconvincing.

It's the economy, stupid

Elsewhere in the study, arguments for remaining in the Union were tested, with economic considerations proving the strongest pull.

Some 57% of those asked said leaving the UK “would be a major risk for Scotland’s economy and jobs” was a convincing argument for staying in the Union, while 38% said it was an unconvincing argument.

One of Better Together's key arguments against independence was Scotland would be worse-off outside the Union (Image: Getty)

And 56% said they found convincing the argument that “in spite of current challenges, the different countries of the UK still have more in common than divides us”, while 39% took the opposite view.

Scotland getting the “best of both worlds” from remaining part of the Union while enjoying control over some of its own affairs through devolution convinced 56%, with 41% rejecting this.

By any means? 

The study also tested public confidence in the other ways in which Scotland could become independent, with 47% of voters saying a so-called wildcat referendum won by Yes and held without Westminster’s permission would establish a mandate for ending the Union.

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A clear majority of 63% of those polled said a referendum won by Yes and held with Westminster’s permission would provide a mandate for independence – making this the most convincing option for most voters.

Rachel Ormston, research director at Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These findings highlight the challenges for pro-independence supporters in finding a mechanism to establish a democratic mandate for independence that is widely accepted by the Scottish public as a whole.

“While the UK Government appears unlikely to agree to a second referendum in the near future, this is currently the only route that a clear majority of Scots view as legitimate.

“This is in spite of the fact that one of the arguments in favour of independence that the Scottish public find most convincing is that Westminster cannot be trusted to act in Scotland’s best interests.”