BORIS Johnson could yet survive the partygate scandal, experts have predicted, as a new poll shows nearly two-thirds of people in the UK think he should go if he gets more fines for Downing Street parties.
The Prime Minister paid a £50 penalty last week after police concluded he had broken his own lockdown laws at a gathering for his birthday on June 19, 2020. Others present including Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Johnson’s wife Carrie were also fined.
It means Johnson has become the UK’s first serving prime minister to be sanctioned for breaking the law and he could face several more fines.
The new YouGov poll, published by The Times yesterday, found 53% of people in Britain think he should go now – rising to 63% if he is issued with more fines.
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Johnson is reportedly spending the Easter weekend at Chequers preparing a statement for the Commons on Tuesday, having said he will “set the record straight”.
The fine led to renewed calls for Johnson to resign over the scandal, with SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford saying he had “repeatedly misled Parliament”.
And the Prime Minister will have to defend himself against this claim – with intentionally misleading parliament an offence punishable by resignation under the ministerial code.
The reaction among Tories has been mixed – while some MPs have called for him to go, nearly all cabinet ministers have publicly backed both Johnson and the Chancellor.
Lord Wolfson quit as a justice minister, saying that he had come to the “inevitable conclusion that there was repeated rule-breaking, and breaches of the criminal law, in Downing Street”.
The peer concluded he had no option but to resign considering “my ministerial and professional obligations to support and uphold the rule of law”.
However, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is among those who have backtracked on earlier demands the Prime Minister should resign – claiming talk of a leadership contest should be put on pause while the war in Ukraine is ongoing.
Tim Durrant, associate director of the Institute for Government (IfG) think tank, pointed out Johnson’s survival depends on the views of Conservative MPs.
He told the Sunday National that “currently it seems clear that they’ve decided to support him”.
He said: “Johnson led the Conservatives to their biggest electoral success in decades – many of the current MPs feel they owe their seats to him and his ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign.
“There is also a question about who would be the next leader – various names have been discussed but there is no clear frontrunner, so a leadership contest would be a moment of uncertainty.
“MPs have also pointed to the war in Ukraine, the UK’s support for the Ukrainian government and the relationship between Johnson and Zelenskyy as reasons why there should not be a change of leader at the moment.”
Some Conservative MPs have said they will wait until the publication of the full investigation by Sue Gray, which some reports have suggested could be as early as next week.
Durrant said it was unlikely to be published until after the local elections on May 5 and it was difficult to predict what happens next given how the cost of living crisis and events in Ukraine have succeeded in “knocking partygate off the headlines”.
He added: “[Johnson has] said he will correct the record in parliament – it’s not clear yet what form that will take.
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“There have also been reports that opposition MPs will table some kind of motion criticising him – again, we don’t know exactly how that will work at this stage. It’s clear that this will be a topic of debate and discussion in parliament though.”
Writing in a blog post published by the IfG, he concluded: “The reaction of Conservative MPs – informed by the views of their constituents and potentially by the local election results in May – is what will decide whether these fines affect Johnson’s future.
“Throughout all of the scandals of the last year, they have always had the power to remove their confidence in Johnson’s leadership; their revealed preference has always been to not do so. From the reaction so far, it seems likely that they will choose the same approach this time.
“The consequences of that decision are their responsibility.”
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