THE Tories could be pushed back into third place in Scottish politics in the wake of the partygate scandal, a new poll has found.
Support for the party has fallen significantly, new research suggests, and is “yet to fully recover” after it was revealed the Prime Minister and his inner circle had repeatedly broken lockdown rules in Downing Street.
The poll, carried out by Survation for Ballot Box Scotland late last month, estimates the Tories could expect to take just 19% of the regional list vote and 20% of the constituency vote in a Scottish Parliament election.
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This was below the prediction for Scottish Labour, who were estimated to take 23% of the list vote and 25% of the constituency vote.
Scottish Labour could be pushed back into being the main opposition in Holyrood as the SNP remained the most popular party in the country.
Ballot Box Scotland, an online election tracker, said the SNP were still “the party to beat”.
Support for the SNP has fallen slightly, the research found, with the party tipped to lose two seats in a Holyrood vote. The Greens were predicted to gain two.
The SNP were predicted to take 34% of the list vote and 46% of the constituency vote.
List support for the Greens had increased to 11%, the study found.
Some 45% of those polled said they would vote for the SNP at a UK Parliament election, compared with just 27% for Labour and 19% for the Tories.
The poll put support for independence at 42%, compared with 47% of respondents who said they backed staying in the Union. But 11% of those polled said they didn’t know whether they supported independence – up one percentage point since the same poll was carried out in 2021.
Allan Faulds, the founder of Ballot Box Scotland, said: “The SNP remain the party to beat, with a clear overall lead.
“Combined with projected growth for the Greens, who continue to poll at record levels, the current co-operative government would easily be re-elected at Holyrood.
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“Whether that government will convince Scots to support independence is another matter, as this poll adds to a trend showing a consistent, but narrow, preference for the Union.”
Faulds added: “This poll will put a spring in Anas Sarwar’s step, showing Labour at their strongest in years and well positioned to displace the Conservatives as Scotland’s second largest party.
“Though Douglas Ross may have hoped the worst of the lockdown parties fallout had passed, his party’s support is yet to fully recover.”
An SNP spokesperson said: "An SNP victory in Scotland is what Boris Johnson fears the most, meanwhile a vote for Labour - or any other of the smaller parties - will only help the Tories in the backdoor.
"Boris Johnson and his government are completely remote from the realities of families struggling with the soaring costs of living."
They added that the upcoming May elections were "an opportunity to cast a vote for the SNP for stronger local communities and local services, and to cast a verdict on Tory lies, cronyism and hypocrisy."
There was also a slight increase in support for the LibDems in the list vote, with 8% of people saying they would back the party compared with just 5% last year. There was no change in the party’s popularity in the constituency vote which was put at 7%.
Alba would pick up 2% of the list vote, according to the survey.
Scottish voters also backed replacing first past the post at Westminster and replacing it with a more representative system as 56% of those polled said they would support introducing proportional representation.
Some 25% of people asked said they neither supported nor opposed changing the UK-wide voting system while only 11% opposed it outright.
And 43% backed using proportional representation for all UK elections, while 27% said first past the post should be used in all elections.
Survation polled 1002 people aged 16 and over living in Scotland from March 24 to 28 this year.
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