THE idea of federalism in Scotland is unlikely to be an option until the question of Scotland leaving the UK has been “tested”, according to a leading constitution expert.

Professor Nicola McEwen, senior fellow at think-tank UK in a Changing Europe, also said the Tory government appeared to be “waiting it out” on independence in the hope that people in Scotland “get fed up” of the debate on the constitution.

A former Welsh First Minister who was also speaking at the Constitution and Governance in the UK Conference, organised by UK in a Changing Europe, predicted the UK would not survive any Conservative attempts to rebuild a “kind of Victorian unionism based around a flag”.

McEwen said while federations come in different “shapes and sizes”, what they did have in common was a "commitment to balance diversity and unity”.

She added: “Now we do not have consensus in all parts of the United Kingdom that unity is something to be valued and treasured.

“I can’t imagine a federal solution appearing and being accepted until you get to the point at which you test that question of whether or not there is a commitment to unity.

 “In the case of Scotland, that means on the issue of independence.”

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McEwen also said her sense of the UK Government’s strategy towards Scotland and particularly independence is to “wait it out”.

She said: “[This is] because constitutionally all the authority probably lies with the UK Parliament.

“I say probably as it is a little bit ambiguous as to whether or not there could be a referendum on independence and I have no doubt that will end up in the Supreme Court.

“But even if the Supreme Court was to judge in favour of Scottish Parliament legislation, however that was phrased, it is within the gift of the UK Parliament to alter the devolution settlement to make it reserved if they want to.

“So my sense is that the Conservative government wants to wait this out and hope that people get fed up of the constitution.”

She added: “A lot of people are quite fed up of the constitution, but it is still the dominate issue and it polarises all political debate in Scotland.”

Speaking at the same event, Professor Carwyn Jones, who was Labour First Minister for Wales between 2009 and 2018, said devolution in the UK has largely been about “throwing powers at various groups of Celts in order to keep them quiet”.

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He said there was a “danger” that a particular type of unionism started to be associated with the Conservative party. 

“So for example increasingly in Wales, if a Union Jack is flying, people assume it must be the British Legion or it is a Conservative voter,” he said.

“It is not seen as a flag that necessarily is representative of all the population - that is something that has happened in the last 20 or 30 years.

“Which is why it would be a grave mistake for the Conservative party to try to rebuild the kind of Victorian unionism based around a flag.”

He said one example of the “obsession with flags” was plans for an eight-storey high union flag to be emblazoned on a UK government building in Cardiff - which were eventually scrapped.

He added: “That’s not the way to do it - to try to go backwards, to recentralise, the UK will not survive that, it just won’t survive.

“There are people at the moment who would not be in favour of independence who will say - if that is the way you are going to behave we may as well be independent.”